At Least 139 Dead Off Djibouti: War, Drought and Gulf Labor System Together Shape 'Death Route East'

A smuggling boat carrying 305 people capsized due to severe overloading shortly after departing from the port of Djibouti. The Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported on October 12 that the United Nations International Organization for Migration (IOM) confirmed that all of the deceased and more than 80 survivors were Ethiopian nationals, with another 84 people unaccounted for.

The capsizing occurred in waters north of Obock in northern Djibouti, in the vicinity of Guhere, between late Thursday night and early Friday local time. Alexandre Coissac, head of the IOM Djibouti office, citing survivor testimony, said the vessel sank rapidly after leaving port, with the "main reason being severe overloading." Coissac also acknowledged that the current death toll only covers bodies recovered by Djibouti authorities — large numbers of bodies buried by the migrants' relatives themselves, whose identities have yet to be verified, have not yet been included, and the final figure is almost certain to be higher.

The destination of these migrants was not Yemen. The vast majority of those boarding vessels in northern Djibouti were aiming to continue northward into Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf states to make a living. Yet the southern end of the cheap-labor pipeline on which Gulf prosperity depends is being torn apart by a reignited war.

IOM data show that the number of people displaced within Yemen has surged from 76,000 in mid-September to 200,000 — the most serious escalation in the conflict between Saudi-backed government forces and Iranian-backed Houthi armed forces since the UN-brokered ceasefire of 2022. In just the past few weeks, more than 3,700 Yemenis have crossed the sea in the opposite direction to flee to Djibouti, the reverse direction of this capsizing. IOM stated in a declaration: "Despite ongoing violence in Yemen, migrants continue to risk dangerous journeys in the hope of reaching the Gulf states."

At the other end of the route is Ethiopia. Citing an IOM report, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported that on September 23, the largest-scale military clashes since the 2020–2022 Tigray war broke out in the Tigray region, with Eritrea severing ties with Ethiopia over alleged support for an anti-government alliance. Several Tigray residents told Reuters that anti-government forces have forcibly conscripted young men into service; the anti-government forces denied this.

But IOM's situation report on Djibouti covering September 20 to 30 recorded another dimension: when interviewed Ethiopian migrants explained their reasons for leaving, in addition to citing armed conflict and forced conscription, they also listed the hardships caused by drought as a key push factor.

Placing this so-called "Eastern Route" — the maritime path from the Horn of Africa through Djibouti and Yemen to the Arabian Peninsula — in an annual perspective shows that this tragedy is not an isolated incident. Statistics from IOM's "Missing Migrants Project" show that more than 900 migrants have died or gone missing along this route in 2025, with the number of people taking this route having increased 18% from the previous period. An IOM official told Reuters that people continue to use this route amid changing circumstances in Ethiopia and Yemen, "even though numbers and directions may shift over time." What awaits them on the route are maritime accidents, people smuggling and arbitrary detention after disembarking.

Djibouti authorities are still conducting search and rescue operations, providing medical assistance to survivors and arranging the handling of victims' remains. The governments of Djibouti and Ethiopia had not responded to requests for comment as of press time.