Behind the Partial Resumption of Flights to Mekelle: Order Restoration in Tigray Still Extremely Fragile

Ethiopian Airlines will resume passenger flights to Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, this Sunday (October 11). According to a report by Africa News, the state-owned carrier opened ticket sales on October 9, nearly three weeks after fully suspending Tigray routes on September 23.

Citing the airline's statement, Africa News reported that the suspension was due to the "current situation" in the Tigray region, with no further explanation. The grounding order initially covered three cities — Mekelle, Shire and Axum — located in central and northern Tigray respectively.

Behind the flight suspension lies a rapidly escalating military conflict. Africa News reported that an opposition coalition led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) launched a major offensive against Ethiopian forces on September 23, characterized as the most serious escalation since the 2020–2022 civil war. According to reports, TPLF forces at one point seized control of airports in all three locations; the loss of Mekelle represents a major setback for the TPLF-led opposition coalition.

Over the past week, federal forces have recaptured Mekelle and redeployed in the city. Africa News noted that this development cleared the security prerequisites for the airline to resume routes. However, commercial flights to Shire and Axum remain grounded.

Mekelle is the largest city in Tigray and the core aviation hub connecting the region with the federal capital, Addis Ababa; the disruption of routes to Shire and Axum means civilian transport links across large parts of northern and central Tigray have not truly been reopened. Africa News also assessed that the security situation in the region "remains volatile".

The three-week total suspension severed medical evacuations, commercial exchanges and family connections between Tigray and the federal capital. With flights to only one city now restored, the pace of resumption lags far behind the back-and-forth on the battlefield — fragile military control could once again interrupt the only remaining civilian access route at any moment, and whether direct flights from Addis Ababa to Mekelle can continue will depend on whether conditions on the front line are sufficient to allow the airline to bear operational risks.