Ethiopia and Eritrea Accuse Each Other of Aggression; Red Sea Corridor Dispute Pushes Horn of Africa to Brink of War

Ethiopia and Eritrea recently traded accusations of "aggression" at the UN Security Council, pushing this Horn of Africa — already scarred by two devastating conflicts — to the brink of a new war. According to Al Jazeera, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos stated in a letter to the Security Council that Eritrean forces had advanced 60 kilometers into Tigray, describing this as "a flagrant act of aggression that triggers Ethiopia's inherent right of self-defense." He invoked Article 51 of the UN Charter but did not specify what military measures had been taken or were about to be taken.

In a letter to the Security Council the following day, Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh flatly denied the cross-border accusations, calling them a pretext for an offensive launched by Addis Ababa and demanding that the Council condemn its "lamentable declaration of war" and take "deterrent measures." Saleh warned that Ethiopia's offensive would "inflict enormous destruction on the peoples of both countries and destabilize the entire region."

Behind this diplomatic exchange lies a sudden escalation in armed conflict that began on September 23. An anti-government alliance that includes the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) launched coordinated attacks on Ethiopian government forces in the Tigray, Amhara, and Afar regions, at one point seizing the Tigrayan capital Mekelle and its airport before announcing a withdrawal on October 3. Government and allied forces subsequently re-entered Mekelle and surrounding towns, and in recent days have taken the towns of Idaga Hamus and Abi Adi. Citing a report by the U.S. conflict monitor ACLED, Al Jazeera reported that Eritrean troops crossed the border into Ethiopian territory near Zarambaessa and were struck by Ethiopian drones while advancing on Idaga Hamus. The Eritrean government has so far not responded to the report.

Al Jazeera also noted that several key facts remain difficult to independently verify. Addis Ababa accuses Asmara of funding, arming, and directing anti-government forces and of deploying troops inside Tigray, while Eritrea denies the allegations; the actual scale of Eritrean forces' entry into Tigray, whether they have directly engaged government troops in combat, and whether Asmara is orchestrating an insurgency against the Abiy administration, all remain difficult to independently confirm. Matthias Rompel, a professor at the Institute of Sociology at the University of Giessen in Germany, cautioned that "one needs to distinguish between the two sides' accusations and independently verified facts."

A deeper driver of the conflict lies in the contest over Red Sea access. The landlocked state of Ethiopia has repeatedly stressed its need for direct maritime access, while Eritrea fears that Addis Ababa's goal is to seize the port of Assab. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reiterated on Monday that his country "must have access to the Red Sea." Housamuddin Ibrahim of London's Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute noted that "the danger is that both sides now view the other's narrative as existential." Economist foreign correspondent Tom Gardner argued that the tensions must be understood against the backdrop of decades of hostility between the two countries — the brief alignment during the 2020–2022 Tigray war was the exception, "born of a shared hostility toward the TPLF." He stated bluntly, "This looks like the most dangerous moment for the region since the 1998–2000 war."

Rompel further cautioned that the Tigray issue, the Red Sea dispute, and Egypt's strategic contest with Ethiopia over the Nile are intertwined, adding that "this conflict has the potential to shake the entire Horn of Africa and produce spillover effects on Sudan, Somalia, and Red Sea security."

The 2020–2022 Tigray war already killed hundreds of thousands of people and was accompanied by allegations of massacres, sexual violence, and widespread famine; Eritrea fought alongside the Ethiopian federal army against its long-time foe, the TPLF. The Pretoria Agreement signed in November 2022 brought the main fighting to a close, but Eritrea was not a signatory to that agreement, which also explains the rapid deterioration in relations between the two countries since then.

Citing Reuters, Al Jazeera reported that three residents confirmed that Ethiopian government forces and allied militias had entered Adigrat, a strategic city located roughly 30 kilometers from the Eritrean border. Al Jazeera also cited footage from the Associated Press showing Ethiopian military vehicles entering the city with some residents lining the route in welcome. Government-aligned forces have reported taking Idaga Hamus and Abi Adi, while explosions and reports of so-called drone strikes have been heard near Adigrat. Analysts warn that Ethiopian troops are advancing toward the Eritrean border, and with diplomatic ties severed, "the last formal crisis-management mechanism" is gone, raising the risk of miscalculation.

Ibrahim stated plainly that the two countries have already moved beyond a phase of "drifting slowly toward war" and into "a high-risk phase, with limited but direct armed conflict and a real possibility of rapid escalation into a full-scale interstate war." Both he and Rompel stressed that an all-out war is not inevitable, but "the space for diplomatic de-escalation is rapidly narrowing." For this land already burdened by the memory of two wars, every ratcheting up of nationalist rhetoric and every advance of military deployment is once again staking ordinary people's livelihoods and security on an uncertain gamble.