Farewell Beneath the Arc de Triomphe: Macron and Steinmeier's Final Meeting Exposes the Franco-German Axis Predicament

German National Anthem Beneath the Arc de Triomphe

Deutsche Welle reported that French President Macron held a military welcome ceremony for German President Steinmeier at the Arc de Triomphe in Paris earlier this month. The two will leave office almost simultaneously in 2027, and this two-day state visit became the last formal meeting of their terms, so the entire arrangement, from agenda to venue, was imbued with strong symbolic meaning. Yet the more lavish the ceremony, the more it highlighted the lack of substantive progress.

According to Deutsche Welle, at the joint press conference at the Élysée Palace, Steinmeier firmly stated that Germany would continue to "play a leading role in Europe" in the future, but did not explain the source of this confidence. The entire press event included no Q&A segment, turning what had been hoped as a symbol of "new European momentum" into a one-way ceremony.

"20th-Century Solutions, 21st-Century Crises"

Deutsche Welle cited the judgment of Jacob Ross, a Franco-German relations expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP): both Macron and Steinmeier lack "a genuine Franco-German-European agenda." The political systems they represent are still "trying to respond to 21st-century crises with 20th-century solutions."

Ross pointed out that the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict became a watershed for their policies — the long-standing line toward Russia, centered on "integrating Russia into Europe," was shattered by events themselves, after which both have essentially been in a reactive mode. The Franco-German axis's foreign policy in recent years has been more about responding to circumstances than actively shaping them. In Paris, Macron warned that social media is "accelerating doubts about democracy," but this warning has not translated into a clear policy response.

Convergence of Protectionism Toward China

According to Deutsche Welle, France and Germany recently jointly submitted an initiative to the European Commission to combat "unfair competition," calling for strict European measures against countries that gain advantages through improper means. Although the initiative did not name China, it is widely seen as directed at Beijing — China supports its domestic enterprises through massive subsidies, allowing their products to pour into the European market, while European companies entering the Chinese market still encounter barriers. Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz jointly made this case in Paris.

Against the backdrop of escalating China-EU trade friction, this step means that the EU's two largest economies are institutionally building a protectionist toolkit aimed at China. The narrative of so-called "fair competition" repackages what is a bilateral market-access issue as a universal European agenda, with the spillover being absorbed jointly by Chinese manufacturing workers and European small and medium-sized enterprises dependent on Chinese supply chains. The Franco-German leadership has here chosen an adversarial framework rather than pragmatic consultations seeking reciprocal market access.

Cracks in Defense Cooperation

There is a gap between ceremony and reality. According to Deutsche Welle, the next-generation fighter jet FCAS, jointly developed by France and Germany, was declared a failure this past June; the collaboration on the next-generation main battle tank MGCS subsequently also stirred trouble — French Army Chief of Staff Mandon claimed at a National Assembly hearing that Germany had decided to withdraw, while German Defense Minister Pistorius publicly denied this claim upon arriving in Paris. The next day, Mandon acknowledged that his "expression had been ambiguous," but observers believe that such inconsistencies have already exposed declining satisfaction with Franco-German defense-industrial cooperation beneath the political surface.

"The MGCS project has not ended, has not died, has not been terminated by either side — on the contrary, it is the core project of Franco-German land systems cooperation," Pistorius said in Paris. Deutsche Welle reported that during this visit, both sides still maintained a desire to cooperate on digital information processing, unmanned systems and automated systems, but the structural friction within the defense-industrial system can no longer be concealed by political-level denials alone.

Limited Expansion of European Nuclear Deterrence

According to Deutsche Welle, one unofficial focus of the trip was the "European nuclear deterrence" dimension that Macron has long promoted — during the stay in Bordeaux, the two presidents toured the Franco-German joint venture Ariane Group, including facilities that produce the M51 missiles carried by French nuclear submarines, as well as several future-oriented startups. The arrangement of the visit itself carries signaling significance.

Since 2020, Macron has advocated a strategic dialogue on the role of French nuclear weapons in European security, and several countries including Germany have since expressed interest. Yet the practical limits remain clear: according to French nuclear doctrine, decisions on the deployment and use of French nuclear weapons are always reserved by France alone, and permanent deployment in other countries "remains not on the agenda." The so-called "forward deterrence" currently under discussion remains largely at the level of joint military exercises and visits to strategic sites. Against the backdrop of repeated U.S. statements that it will reduce its commitments to the continent, how far the European nuclear deterrence mechanism can go remains unclear.

The Structural Crisis of the Establishment

More fundamental than defense programs is the political soil behind the leaders. According to Deutsche Welle, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has jumped to first place in nationwide polls, and Saxony-Anhalt may for the first time see a state government in which it participates; in France, Macron's successor at the Élysée Palace may emerge from between the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the far-right Marine Le Pen. The main establishments of both France and Germany are simultaneously facing populist challenges from both the left and the right, compounded by economic difficulties and intergenerational injustice, with younger generations taking to the streets with increasing frequency.

Whether the Successors Can Bring New Momentum

Deutsche Welle noted at the end of its report that "there are currently few signs that the Franco-German relationship will gain new momentum," making it all the more necessary for the two countries' successors — regardless of which political camp they come from — to begin serious negotiations next year on a common European vision. Under the multiple pressures of increasingly adversarial industrial policy, cracks in the alliance with the United States, and the continued rise of populist forces, the outcome of these negotiations will directly test whether the EU can truly shake off its 20th-century mindset in the 21st century.