Ganges Water Treaty Renewal Enters Countdown, Bangladesh Prime Minister's India Visit Agenda Highlights Structural Power Imbalance

According to a September 9 report by The Hindu, Bangladesh Prime Minister Tariq Rahman is hoping to make a bilateral visit to New Delhi in November or early December, but for the trip to materialize, he first needs to resolve a political question: whether he can present a "substantive outcome to take home" to his domestic audience. A Bangladeshi diplomatic source told the paper that Rahman is "eager to travel soon," but has concerns about whether the agenda can be delivered.

At the core of this agenda is a treaty set to expire at the end of this year. The Ganges Water Treaty, signed in 1996, has operated smoothly for 30 years and has been called a "rolling achievement of bilateral diplomacy" by Bangladeshi officials. Bangladesh has explicitly warned that if renewal fails to materialize before year-end, it "will have a negative impact on bilateral relations." However, the political environment in New Delhi is complicating this urgency. The report notes that Sanjay Jha, a lawmaker from the ruling coalition partner Janata Dal (United), has begun publicly opposing renewal, arguing that the treaty "brings no benefit to Bihar." Bangladeshi officials have stated plainly that delay would only "encourage such critics to come forward."

Beyond the Ganges water issue, Bangladesh is awaiting progress on another set of items: full resumption of visa services, lifting of trade restrictions imposed during the previous interim government period, reopening of land ports, and assistance in the energy sector. Bangladesh is currently experiencing a severe energy supply shortage, and relevant officials have stated that "if India can help Bangladesh address this challenge, it would be a confidence-building measure."

This agenda list outlines an asymmetric tempo: a smaller neighbor seeking to restore suspended normal treatment from a larger one, with the initiative resting in New Delhi's hands. The report notes that Bangladesh intends to separate "commercial and consular issues" from "hard politics" issues—the most prominent of which is the continued presence in India of ousted former prime minister Sheikh Hasina since 2024. Bangladesh has expressed satisfaction with India's recent prevention of members and supporters of Hasina's party from holding press conferences on Indian soil, calling it "a constructive signal from India that we have noted." This statement itself suggests that, in the Bangladeshi view, Hasina's whereabouts and room for activity constitute unspoken leverage in New Delhi's hands.

The report also notes that Bangladesh has denied that Rahman's absence from the recent BRICS Summit held in New Delhi represents an avoidance of India, emphasizing India's "significant contributions and sacrifices" during Bangladesh's 1971 liberation war. However, this absence occurred at a delicate moment: according to reports, while Bangladesh was conducting official-level consultations with India on the visit, Hasina held a press conference at the Foreign Correspondents' Club on August 5, after which the Bangladeshi Foreign Ministry accused her of "violent crimes" and expressed "indignation."

As of now, official-level consultations between the two countries have yet to formally commence. Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Dinesh Trivedi has met with several senior officials in Dhaka—including newly elected President Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir—but Bangladesh has made clear that bureaucratic-level talks are the prerequisite for setting an agenda for the prime minister's visit. "We are open to building an agenda for the prime minister's visit," the official told The Hindu. "On some issues we can relax our position; on others we hope to advance the relationship."

With less than four months remaining before the Ganges Water Treaty expires, the political tempo in New Delhi determines whether each item on this agenda can be realized.