Global Dementia New Cases Expected to Double by 2050, with Women and Low- and Middle-Income Countries Bearing the Greatest Burden

According to ABC News, a large-scale population study published in JAMA Neurology found that by 2050, the number of new global dementia cases per year is expected to reach 24.7 million, more than double the approximately 11.4 million in 2023, and care demand will see explosive growth by then.

The study was conducted by the Centre for Healthy Brain Ageing (CHeBA) at the University of New South Wales, incorporating data from 38,418 people across 18 countries and regions, and is one of the most comprehensive studies to date on dementia incidence. Study leader Dr. Ashleigh Vella said: "Understanding these differences is critical, as it allows us to develop prevention, diagnostic and care strategies tailored to those at highest future risk."

The study found that approximately two-thirds of dementia diagnoses in Australia are women—a long-standing gender gap previously often attributed to women's longer life expectancy. But CHeBA co-director Professor Henry Brodaty noted that menopause, cardiometabolic factors, and historical inequalities in educational and career opportunities may jointly drive higher dementia incidence in women. "Historically, women had limited access to education and restricted career development opportunities, which may weaken their cognitive resilience," Brodaty told ABC News. "Research shows that people in more complex occupations—especially those involving managing the complexity of others—have lower rates of cognitive decline and dementia."

He also noted that higher rates of depression, anxiety, and obesity in women are contributing factors. Regarding the impact of menopause, Brodaty acknowledged that "the cessation of estrogen production may play some role, but it has not been established, and existing research findings are contradictory on whether hormone replacement therapy has an impact."

Another key finding of the study is that populations in low- and middle-income countries have the highest dementia incidence. Monash University dementia researcher Matthew Pase told ABC News that the projections for low-income countries are "alarming," "because these countries have weaker capacity to respond... any solution must be scalable, not just accessible to those who can pay to be seen at academic medical centres in Sydney or Melbourne."

This global trend also faces structural barriers at the treatment level in Australia itself. According to ABC News, Australia's drug regulator has approved two dementia drug therapies, but they are expensive and not listed on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS), meaning ordinary patients must pay out of pocket. For the two-thirds of diagnosed patients who are women, this means the economic burden of the disease is further concentrated on a group that has historically been disadvantaged in the allocation of healthcare resources. Pase stated bluntly that "prevention remains key."

The study notes that by intervening on 14 known risk factors, nearly half of dementia cases can be prevented or delayed. Brodaty urged Australians to "embrace" brain health in the following ways: at least 30 minutes of physical activity five days a week, maintaining social connections and "exercising the brain" through learning new things, adopting a Mediterranean-style diet rich in vegetables, legumes, and olive oil, and consulting a general practitioner about brain health between ages 45 and 49.