Guinea-Bissau Electoral Commission Says Conditions Not in Place for December Vote, Democratic Transition Stalls Under Military Rule

According to Africanews, Felesberta Moura Vaz, vice president of Guinea-Bissau's National Electoral Commission, announced on October 8 that the conditions necessary for the legislative and presidential elections originally scheduled for December have not yet been met. The declaration has brought the political transition aimed at restoring civilian rule to a stalemate.

In November of last year, military officers launched a coup that overthrew President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, after which the military leaders adopted a one-year transitional charter pledging to restore civilian rule. With the December deadline drawing closer, the country has for weeks been mired in serious political and security turbulence.

Vaz said the electoral commission had communicated its assessment to the military leader, General Horta Ntaam. But she declined to answer whether the elections would be postponed, saying only that it was "a matter for the transitional president" — a role General Ntaam currently also holds.

Prime Minister Ilídio Vieira Té offered a different explanation: no political party is "in an ideal state to contest the elections," on the grounds that the leadership of most parties is out of date. Against the backdrop of military control over the electoral process and the fact that the coup occurred just one day before the provisional election results were originally due to be released, this procedural explanation is widely seen as the latest pretext the military has seized upon to postpone the vote.

Ntaam is a close ally of ousted President Embaló. Many observers suspect that Embaló engineered the military takeover in order to interrupt an election process he appeared to be losing.

Recently, the new military leader appears to have been distancing himself from the former president. Embaló was prevented from returning to the country last week, reportedly amid discontent within the Presidential Guard — a force regarded as loyal to Embaló. Several members of the guard were subsequently disarmed and placed under supervision at military headquarters.

Sandwiched between Senegal and Guinea, Guinea-Bissau has experienced five coups and numerous attempted coups since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974. This long history of military intervention, combined with the current disruption of the electoral process once again, highlights the fragility of democratic foundations in this small West African country. Whether the elections will ultimately be postponed remains unsettled.