Italy's Electoral Reform Faces Thursday Vote: Meloni's Bonus Seat Mechanism Sparks Democratic Controversy

Italy's parliament is set to hold a final vote Thursday on an electoral law reform pushed by Prime Minister Meloni. According to Al Jazeera, the bill would award up to 70 bonus seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 35 in the Senate — 105 in total — to any party or coalition that secures more than 42% of seats in both chambers, in order to ensure a parliamentary majority.

The reform would replace the 2017 "Rosatellum" mixed electoral system with a fully proportional one, while adding the bonus-seat mechanism. Al Jazeera noted that if no party or coalition crosses the 42% threshold in both chambers, seats would be distributed proportionally, and the threshold is "relatively high."

Critics have warned that the mechanism could grant minority coalitions disproportionate parliamentary power. According to Al Jazeera, Riccardo Magi, leader of Italy's liberal "More Europe" party, has been on hunger strike since the beginning of the week, condemning the bill as an "anti-democratic law" and arguing that it could allow a "minority coalition to obtain an enormous parliamentary majority." Former Prime Minister and Senator Matteo Renzi's "Italia Viva" party similarly accused the ruling coalition of pursuing the reform "out of fear of losing power."

Vincenzo Emanuele, a political scientist at Rome's Luiss University, told Al Jazeera that if no one crosses the 42% threshold, "this could produce a hung parliament, forcing various factions into complex post-election negotiations just to form a government," and that subtle shifts in coalition composition could prove decisive between majority and stalemate.

Meloni has framed the reform as a measure to strengthen Italy's political stability. "The winner will obtain the majority seats needed to govern," she said. She also threatened to resign if the bill were not passed. Citing political scientist Giovanni Orsina of Luiss University, Al Jazeera reported that the bill is "very likely" to pass — it has already been approved by the Senate and only awaits a secret ballot in the Chamber of Deputies.

However, Al Jazeera's report also noted that the reform's practical benefit to the ruling coalition may be limited. According to a Politico poll aggregation, Meloni's Brothers of Italy (FdI) party currently has 27% support, with the ruling coalition totaling 39%, below the 42% threshold needed to trigger the bonus seats. Reuters previously reported that the newly formed far-right group "National Future" has siphoned off some votes from Brothers of Italy, currently polling at around 7.8% support (according to Italian polling firm SWG).

According to Emanuele, simulations by the Italian Electoral Studies Center (CISE) suggest that a center-left coalition composed of the Democratic Party and the Five-Star Movement could obtain 44% of the vote — above the bonus-seat threshold — and thereby secure a "comfortable parliamentary majority." "The reform itself is not inherently advantageous to the incumbent government: its effect will depend critically on how competing coalitions are configured," Emanuele told Al Jazeera. According to Politico's aggregation, the Democratic Party currently has 21% support, the Five-Star Movement 12%, and the Greens and Left Alliance 6%.

According to reports, the bill also requires coalitions to announce their candidate for prime minister in advance of the election. Citing SWG research director Rado Fonda, Reuters suggested that this provision "could pose problems for the center-left, potentially forcing an early leadership contest that exposes divisions and thereby weakens the coalition."

Under Italian law, the next general election must be held no later than December 22, 2027, but the government may call an early election.