Meloni's Electoral Law Reform Heads to the House: Opposition Accuses Government of Tailoring Democratic Rules

Italy's parliament voted on an electoral law amendment on October 8. The reform, accused by the opposition of being tailor-made for Prime Minister Meloni's government, seeks to bundle "full proportional representation" with a decisive majority threshold: any political alliance winning more than 42% of the vote would automatically secure a majority in both chambers of parliament. According to The Hindu, citing AFP, the bill has already passed the Senate and is awaiting its final vote in the House of Deputies.

Minister for Parliamentary Relations Luca Ciriani told AFP that the reform would guarantee governability and require parties to publish their governing platforms before elections and nominate their prime ministerial candidates in advance. Ciriani said this would benefit voters.

But Democratic Party (PD) House leader Chiara Braga told AFP bluntly that the plan "distorts democratic rules to serve the interests of those in power." The opposition vowed to vote against it and threatened to take the new law to court.

Under the bill, an alliance winning more than 42% of the vote would gain an additional 70 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 35 in the Senate, circumventing the reality that under the current mixed electoral system, no one can secure a parliamentary majority. Italy's current electoral model blends first-past-the-post with proportional representation, and neither the right nor the left is expected to win a parliamentary majority on its own at the next election.

Within the ruling coalition, tensions over the next general election have already surfaced. The House vote is being conducted by secret ballot, meaning potential rebels within the coalition have room to vote against it.

Meloni last month became Italy's longest-serving postwar government leader, but the coalition she leads is under pressure from sliding support — polls show the newly formed National Future (FN) party of former general Roberto Vannacci has overtaken both the League and Forza Italia. Meloni has so far ruled out an alliance with Vannacci, but analysts believe she will eventually need the support of this far-right kindred spirit.

Political risk also comes from the opposition camp. According to the latest Ipsos Doxa survey, if the center-left alliance can overcome its internal divisions and persuade two small radical parties to join forces, it could cross the 42% threshold — and a design the ruling coalition hoped would lock in its power could instead deliver the majority to opponents. Giovanni Orsina, a political scientist at Rome's Luiss University, told AFP that the risk Meloni faces in the House vote is small, but the law creates a completely open playing field, so she genuinely risks losing the election.

Orsina believes the bill will very likely pass the House. Meloni has warned she will resign if the reform fails, but analysts note that lawmakers are unlikely to risk triggering an early election. Meloni's term was set to end in October 2027, but she may choose to bring the election forward to April or May 2027.