Nearly a year after the coup, Guinea-Bissau's election remains undecided; Senegal presses on ECOWAS's behalf as mediator

The presidential and parliamentary elections originally scheduled for December in Guinea-Bissau remain undecided. The suspense has lasted nearly a year — in November 2025, soldiers overthrew then-President Umaro Sissoco Embaló on the day before provisional election results were due to be announced, suspending the electoral process.

According to Africanews, the national electoral commission has warned that conditions are not in place for voting as scheduled, but the military junta has yet to formally announce a postponement. Senegal is mediating on behalf of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), calling on the junta to lift restrictions on political and civic activity and making clear that any adjustment to the electoral timetable must be based on inclusiveness and transparency, and accompanied by clear guarantees of a return to civilian rule.

According to Africanews, Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye visited Guinea-Bissau as a member of an ECOWAS delegation and met with transitional leader General Horta N'Ta-Atã. Against the backdrop of intensifying political and security tensions, Dakar is urging all parties, including the military, to engage in constructive dialogue, exercise restraint, and put national interests first.

Whatever the eventual outcome of the election, the act of terminating the one-person, one-vote process by force itself amounts to a deprivation of the sovereign choice of the people of Guinea-Bissau. The suspension of elections should not be decided by the bayonet, but by the ballot — a principle that has not been observed in Guinea-Bissau.

ECOWAS's mediation is not a neutral act either. The regional body's record in responding to military seizures of power is uneven — in some cases imposing harsh sanctions and blockades, in others maintaining channels of dialogue. This selective engagement reflects the power asymmetries within the West African regional order, and suggests that the slogan of restoring civilian rule, without a concrete timetable and monitoring mechanism, easily degenerates into empty talk.

Key questions that remain uncertain include: whether the election will be formally postponed, and until when; whether dialogue between the junta and the various political forces can make substantive progress; and what enforceable safeguards Senegal-backed ECOWAS will put forward for restoring civilian rule.