Tariffs as Hammer, Trump as Cheerleader: How the US Is Deeply Meddling in Brazil's Election

According to Al Jazeera, with less than a month to go before Brazil's presidential election vote (October 4), the occupant of the White House, Donald Trump, has once again pulled the tariff lever against the largest economy in South America. In June, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on certain Brazilian exports to the US, citing so-called "unfair trade practices." This is the second time in less than a year that the Trump administration has used tariffs to pressure Brazil — last year he announced 50% tariffs on a range of Brazilian goods, citing the Brazilian government's treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro and publicly characterizing the related trial as "political persecution." Those tariffs were later rescinded, but a new round of 25% rates has already taken effect. Al Jazeera's analysis noted that Trump is using this to pressure the Lula government to halt the judicial proceedings against Bolsonaro.

Al Jazeera's report also noted that last year's tariffs were instead turned into political capital by Lula — he successfully channeled public anger toward the Bolsonaro family, and a July 2025 poll showed his approval rating crossed 50% for the first time in the nine months since the tariffs were announced. However, regarding whether this year's new round of 25% tariffs can again be used to Lula's advantage, Getúlio Vargas Foundation political scientist Leonardo Paz is skeptical, arguing that unless the government can link the new tax burden to ordinary consumers' immediate concerns, it will be difficult to extract a clear electoral dividend from them.

Trump's interference in Brazil's election goes beyond economic tools. In June, on social media, he described Brazil's election as the "next great test" of his "Make America Great Again" agenda. The close relationship between the Bolsonaro family and the Trump administration has made foreign policy, usually marginal in Brazilian elections, play an unusually prominent role this year. Bolsonaro was convicted for his role in plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula. His son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, won the right-wing nomination with his father's endorsement and has become the main challenger to Lula's bid for an unprecedented fourth presidential term. In 2022, Lula defeated Bolsonaro by a razor-thin margin of just 1.8 percentage points — the most closely contested presidential election in Brazilian history.

This showdown is taking place against the backdrop of a right-wing wave sweeping the South American continent. Over the past 12 months, presidential elections in Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru have all been won by right-wing candidates. Al Jazeera, citing Getúlio Vargas Foundation political scientist Leonardo Paz, analyzed that this wave stems more from voter backlash against incumbent parties and domestic factors than from a regional ideological shift. Paz pointed to Argentina as an example — libertarian economist Milei came to power in 2023 precisely because his predecessor left behind a mess of hyperinflation.

But the "boost" from the Trump administration cannot be dismissed either. Al Jazeera's report described a power asymmetry: the US executive branch openly backs right-wing leaders and, through tariffs, diplomatic statements, and other means, ties economic leverage to political pressure, projecting influence on democratic processes in Latin American countries. The degree of backlash this approach has triggered across South American nations varies, yet it has already materially altered the discourse of Brazil's election, making "pro-American or not" a label no candidate can avoid.

Returning to the campaign itself, Lula's hand is not an easy one. Al Jazeera noted that although during his term Brazil's average annual GDP growth has approached 3% and unemployment fell to a historic low of 5.1% by the end of 2025, rising debt, high interest rates, and a high cost of living have eroded public sense of the economic gains. Mario Sergio Lima, a Brazil analyst at policy consultancy Medley Advisors, put it bluntly: "It's an affordability issue. It's not just that things are more expensive — it's that people can't pay. Homeownership is declining, there's a huge need for income, and people feel stuck."

In response to these pressures, the Lula government has launched costly programs including credit expansion, income tax cuts, fuel subsidies, and debt forgiveness. Osvaldo Amaral, a public opinion researcher at the University of Campinas, commented: "The government gave up on winning hearts and went after wallets." He noted that the traditional working-class base of Lula's Workers' Party has changed profoundly — union membership has shrunk, informal employment has grown, and roughly 2.1 million people now make a living through digital platforms like ride-hailing and food delivery. These voters harbor doubts about the traditional labor rights movement.

On the public security issue, Lula is at a clear disadvantage. Al Jazeera, citing pollster Quaest's data, reported that 33% of voters list public security as their top concern, far ahead of the second-ranked issue, the economy, at 15%. At a campaign launch rally in Rio de Janeiro last month, Flavio Bolsonaro accused the Lula government of having "ceded sovereignty" to criminal organizations like the First Capital Command (PCC) and the Red Command (CV), and expressed support for the Trump administration's effort to designate Brazilian gangs as "foreign terrorist organizations." Lula has pledged to create a dedicated public security ministry, while Flavio has promised more aggressive measures, including building five "super-prisons." Lima assessed: "Suppression strategies catch the eye more — even if they don't solve the problem, arresting or killing a batch of criminals gives the impression that something is being done."

Amaral believes Lula is leaning on his long labor movement credentials, emphasizing the qualities Flavio cannot match — experience and the depth of his resume. "He's (Lula) basically saying: 'I didn't get here through my father; I have fifty years of experience.'"

A September Datafolha poll showed that in a hypothetical runoff, Lula would receive 46% support and Flavio Bolsonaro 43%. But both candidates' rejection rates hover near 50%, meaning the race will be decided by that small slice of voters disengaged from politics. Maira Goulart, a political scientist at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, noted that the Brazilian political landscape has largely split into "an increasingly radical right and a moderate progressive camp." Her research indicates that this year's outcome will not depend on mobilizing party bases, but on those who are indifferent to politics — whether because they are busy working or because they feel politics has never benefited them. "Whoever wins this group of voters wins the election."

Analysts are cautious about whether a Lula victory would spark a left-wing resurgence across South America. Paz candidly said that if Lula's win could influence even one South American country to elect a left-wing government, "that would be a surprise," because political trends in South America depend more on each country's domestic affairs and the global economic dynamic. Al Jazeera's report concluded that, regardless of the outcome, the geopolitical implications of this election extend beyond Brazil's borders — a Lula re-election would inject a rare shot in the arm for the Latin American left, while a Lula defeat would bring the entire South American continent into political alignment with the Trump administration, at least until the next round of major elections.