UN Warns: El Niño Continues to Strengthen Before Peaking in December, Could Be Strongest Since 1950

The World Meteorological Organization warned in its Global Seasonal Climate Update released on the 8th that the current El Niño will continue to strengthen before peaking in December, potentially becoming one of the strongest El Niño events observed since 1950.

According to Agence France-Presse and France 24, the World Meteorological Organization forecasts that during October to December 2026, sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will rise to approximately 3.7 degrees Celsius, far exceeding the historical peak of 2.6 degrees Celsius set in 2015-2016. The index measuring sea temperature departures from normal in the core El Niño region has risen from 1.6 degrees Celsius in June this year to 2.5 degrees Celsius in August.

"El Niño has firmly established itself and is rapidly intensifying," said World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. She warned that the probability of El Niño continuing until February 2027 is close to 100%. According to France 24, Saulo pointed out that El Niño does not add new heat to the planet, but rather releases heat stored in the ocean. "The ocean it draws from is the warmest ocean we have observed on record. There is more heat available to be released than ever before."

The previous El Niño already made 2023 the second hottest year on record, and pushed 2024 to a historical peak of approximately 1.55 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. If the current El Niño develops as forecast, global temperature records will be pushed even higher.

The World Meteorological Organization also stated that El Niño will "bring above-average temperatures to most parts of the world and alter precipitation patterns, increasing the risk of drought and flooding in different regions." However, the distribution of climate costs is not equal. According to France 24 citing Agence France-Presse, Central America is bearing the brunt—drought has caused widespread crop withering and livestock deaths, and the chain reactions of climate shocks continue to amplify in vulnerable communities.

This asymmetry is not accidental. The greatest cumulative responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions comes from industrialized countries, but the costs of rising sea temperatures, extreme droughts and floods first fall on the regions with the lowest emissions contributions and the most lacking in adaptive resources. The reason this El Niño is approaching historical peaks is precisely because human activities have pushed ocean heat storage to its highest level on record—this portion of "extra heat" is mainly accumulated by the energy systems and consumption patterns of the Global North, but the consequences are borne by the agriculture, ecosystems and basic public services of the Global South.

This forecast is based on the consensus of 13 national and international meteorological centers. The actual peak of El Niño typically occurs between November and February of the following year, while the temperature surge effects often lag by several months.