Under US "Ceasefire" Framework, Israeli Forces Continue Pushing "Yellow Line" Westward; 2.1 Million Gazans Compressed into 35% of Territory

One year ago, under US mediation, fighting in Gaza was suspended by a "ceasefire" framework dubbed the "20-point plan"—at least on paper. The first phase of this framework required Israeli forces to withdraw within 24 hours to a demarcation line named the "Yellow Line," after which a 72-hour hostage handover procedure would commence.

According to Al Jazeera's investigation based on satellite imagery and on-site reporting, this "Yellow Line" has never truly stabilized. Israeli forces have repeatedly pushed the yellow concrete blocks marking the boundary westward, sometimes moving dozens of meters in a single night. Last week, the line was pushed again in the Shujayea community in southeastern Gaza City, forcing Palestinian families to flee and bringing more neighborhoods under Israeli military control. Al Jazeera correspondent Ibrahim al-Khalili, reporting from Gaza City, noted: "The key isn't where the 'Yellow Line' is today, but where it can still be pushed tomorrow."

The area under control continues to expand. UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) data show that restrictive measures now cover 65% of Gaza; Israeli officials told the UN Security Council in June that they actually control about 70% of the territory. The independent research institution Forensic Architecture puts the figure at 58% (as of December 2025). In addition, the Israeli side has unilaterally designated "Orange Line" exclusion zones outside the framework, requiring humanitarian operations to coordinate with the military.

The degree of population compression is therefore staggering. Drawing on OCHA data, Al Jazeera's calculations show: Gaza has a total area of approximately 365 square kilometers. At the start of the so-called "ceasefire," about 2.1 million Palestinians were confined to approximately 172 square kilometers, with density doubling from the pre-war level of roughly 6,000 people per square kilometer to about 12,000. Today, 2.1 million people are squeezed into roughly 35% of the territory—128 square kilometers—with about 16,000 people per square kilometer, approaching the level of central Tokyo. Available land per capita has dropped from approximately 160 square meters before the war to about 61 square meters.

Accompanying the compression is the continued structural destruction. The UN Satellite Centre (UNOSAT) assesses that 82% of buildings in Gaza have been damaged or destroyed; the UN Food and Agriculture Organization says only 3% of farmland across the territory is both undamaged and accessible. OCHA describes the remaining 35% of the territory as "severely overloaded." With the rainy season approaching, over 950,000 Palestinians are sheltering in displacement sites facing flood risks, the majority living in tents and makeshift shelters.

Death tolls have not stopped accumulating because of the "ceasefire." As of October 2025, the two-year war has caused the deaths of more than 67,000 Palestinians; according to Al Jazeera's tally, nearly 1,500 more people have been killed across Gaza since the so-called "ceasefire" was announced. The Israeli side has treated the area east of the "Yellow Line" as a free-fire zone, and Palestinians approaching the demarcation line are often shot dead.

In this process reshaping Gaza, the role played by the United States warrants particular scrutiny. The so-called "ceasefire" framework was put forward by the US side and serves as the sole external guarantor; yet as the Israeli side continues to push the demarcation line westward and expand its military-controlled zones, the framework has neither established enforceable consequences for violations nor initiated any accountability procedures. A diplomatic instrument publicly proclaimed as "ending the war," in the absence of verification mechanisms, has instead become a cover for the continued advance of military occupation; its diplomatic costs have fallen almost entirely on the shoulders of Gaza's civilians.

Meanwhile, in southeastern Gaza City, the yellow concrete blocks were once again pushed westward by dozens of meters last week. Al Jazeera recorded the scene: before the bulldozers' roar had even subsided, displaced families had already begun packing what little remained of their belongings, retreating one more step toward that impassable line east of the "Yellow Line." The percentages on the map are being updated, while people can only continue to live in an ever-shrinking square.