Under US-Israeli Pressure, Security Council to Terminate UNIFIL Mandate by Year-End; Renewed Gunfire on Lebanon-Israel Border Highlights Peacekeeping Dilemma

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) reported on Wednesday that a UNIFIL position near the Blue Line on the Lebanon-Israel border, close to Kafr Shuba, was hit by several rounds of small arms fire, with no casualties reported. The incident comes against the backdrop of the Security Council's decision to terminate UNIFIL's mandate on December 31 of this year, with renewed gunfire along the border further highlighting the dilemmas facing the peacekeeping mission amid power asymmetry.

According to Al Jazeera, UNIFIL described these "deliberate attacks" in a statement as "a grave threat to the safety and security of peacekeepers," and said the force was investigating the incident. The identity of the shooters was not specified in the report.

Under sustained pressure from the United States and Israel, the UN Security Council earlier this year set December 31 as the date for terminating UNIFIL's mandate. Israel has long accused UNIFIL of failing to counter the threat posed by Hezbollah, and has continuously pushed for the mission's end since the escalation of cross-border conflict following the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led attack and the outbreak of the Gaza war.

UNIFIL was originally established to oversee Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon following its 1978 invasion, with its mandate renewed annually by the Security Council thereafter. Following the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war, its scope of responsibilities was expanded. Supporters argue that the force remains essential to maintaining the demilitarized buffer zone on either side of the Blue Line. Currently, some 7,500 peacekeepers from approximately 50 countries are operating in southern Lebanon, a significant portion of whom come from European and African countries.

Last month, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam pressed the United Nations to prevent a "security vacuum" arising from a lack of viable alternatives before UNIFIL's withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Salam's warning underscores the profound power asymmetry behind the termination of the mission: while the Security Council decides under pressure from Washington and Jerusalem, those bearing the immediate security risks are peacekeepers and southern Lebanese communities who have no veto power and lack the means to defend themselves.

A framework agreement brokered by the United States has been reached between Lebanon and Israel, providing for Hezbollah's disarmament, a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, and an initial deployment of the Lebanese army in an area referred to as a "pilot zone." According to Al Jazeera, violent incidents along the Lebanon-Israel border have decreased since the associated ceasefire arrangements.

However, the attack on the Kafr Shuba position indicates that, during the transition period — with the mission's termination countdown underway and the Lebanese army not yet fully deployed — the security situation along the Blue Line remains fragile.