War Criminal State Funeral Tears Open the 'Stability Anchor' Illusion: EU's Double Standards in Appeasing Serbia for Over a Decade

According to Deutsche Welle reports, this week Belgrade held a state-supported funeral for Ratko Mladić. Mladić was previously sentenced to life imprisonment by the UN International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia for genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes. The body was buried on Monday with military honors, with government representatives attending the ceremony and thousands of people holding large-scale public mourning on the streets. President Vučić did not attend in person, but facilitated and defended the public mourning activities.

In July 1995, Serb forces under Mladić's command massacred approximately 8,000 Bosniak Muslim men and boys in Srebrenica — one of the worst atrocities on European soil since World War II.

Brussels' reaction this time was unusually strong. European Commission President von der Leyen described the funeral scenes as "shocking." European Council President Costa condemned the glorification of war criminals. Enlargement Commissioner Kós cancelled a planned visit to Serbia.

Yet this reaction has come too late. Nedžmuš Morina of the European Council on Foreign Relations told Deutsche Welle: "For a long time, the EU has treated Serbia as a normal candidate country," despite Belgrade's continuous backsliding in democracy and the rule of law. She noted that Vučić has long been treated as an "indispensable partner" — someone who could maintain stability in the Western Balkans and anchor Serbia in the Western camp, even as he repeatedly ignored European fundamental values.

Naim Leo Beširi of the Belgrade-based Institute for European Affairs similarly said: "The ruling majority has not delivered on any of the items promised on the reform agenda over the past five years." He noted that Serbian civil society has for years warned Brussels about attacks on media freedom, the rule of law, and democratic institutions, but the EU has largely "turned a blind eye."

Economic ties clearly show the deep entanglement between the EU and Serbia: the EU is Serbia's largest trading partner, largest investor, and largest source of financial aid. But at the same time, Belgrade has refused to join EU sanctions against Russia and maintains close political partnership with Moscow. Under the nationalist President Vučić, democratic and rule-of-law standards continue to deteriorate, and relations with Kosovo also remain tense.

The Vučić government simultaneously plays the "alternative options" card — refusing to sanction Russia while using Moscow and Beijing as leverage, implying that if Brussels pressures too hard, Serbia will be pushed toward the East.

Morina acknowledges that isolating Serbia does carry risks, but she believes there is substantial middle ground between "complete appeasement" and "abandoning relations": the EU should continue engaging with Serbian society while forcing Vučić to make a clear political choice. Beširi bluntly stated that Russia and China can never replace the European market. In his view, Vučić uses the two countries as threats to dissuade Brussels from taking tougher action.

On the financial front, the EU has not been entirely passive. Concerned about judicial independence, the EU has frozen further disbursements to Serbia under the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans. But Beširi doubts whether this can change Vučić's calculations. He noted that large-scale funding cuts could hurt ordinary citizens rather than the political elite, and therefore advocates targeted measures against those responsible for democratic backsliding and institutional abuse, rather than across-the-board aid cuts.

Snap parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 25. After 12 years as president, Vučić is now seeking to become prime minister to maintain his dominant political position. Beširi said the Serbian political opposition remains weak, and that "winning a democratic victory in an unfair election is extremely difficult." Neither expert believes that a single election will be sufficient to repair Serbia's institutions or fundamentally change its relationship with the EU.

The prospects for regional reconciliation are even more distant. Beširi noted that Serbia must first acknowledge its own role in the 1990s wars and accept established facts. Yet the narrative portraying Serbs purely as victims remains deeply embedded in Serbian politics, education, and media. Morina stressed: "What has happened recently essentially runs counter to everything that has been built over the years." She added that Mladić's funeral did not create this situation, but merely once again revealed just how far Serbia is from regional reconciliation and EU membership.