As US-Iran war continues to push up oil prices, Trump threatens strikes on Iran's Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility and accelerates development of new bunker busters

According to The Times of India citing CNN, an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) of six years of satellite imagery found that construction activity in 2026 at the Pickaxe Mountain underground nuclear facility near Iran's Natanz nuclear facility has shown a "marked surge," possibly to protect future activities of Iran's nuclear program.

US President Trump recently told reporters "we may strike Pickaxe very soon," and said "we know the movements of every single person there." He also threatened that once relevant activity is detected at the site, the US side would strike. CNN, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that the US military has strike battle plans for the site, and that the relevant options were part of a target package under consideration when Trump threatened to escalate the conflict with Iran this summer. The plan involves some of the largest bombs in the US military arsenal, but the sources acknowledged that it is currently unclear whether these weapons can penetrate deep enough underground to destroy anything Iran might have transferred there. The CSIS team noted that the granite mountain is a tough target even for the Pentagon's "heaviest non-nuclear" bombs.

On the strike means front, the United States is advancing on multiple lines. Contract documents disclosed by CNN show that the US Defense Threat Reduction Agency signed a $1.2 million emergency contract four days before the launch of "Operation Epic Fury" to repair a "unique underground test facility" at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico for live-fire tests against deeply buried underground targets. The documents were uploaded to a federal database on February 27—the day before the war began—citing a "time-sensitive national security directive" requiring completion of "rapid test preparation" within two to three weeks. Three people familiar with the matter told CNN that the plans at White Sands are related to the Iran war, involving the development of methods to strike Iran's deepest underground facilities, possibly including strike-simulation drills against specific nuclear facilities. Satellite imagery shows that construction began at a remote site operated by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency and US Strategic Command between February 16 and 18, with work continuing through mid-March. But CNN noted that it could not independently verify whether tests were actually conducted, nor confirm the specific purpose of the activity observed at the site.

The US Air Force is also developing a "next-generation bunker buster" to replace the in-service MOP bomb. Prototype development contracts were awarded in September 2025, and the defense industry was approached for the weapon's source in June 2025. The problem is that in June 2025 the United States struck Iranian nuclear facilities in "Operation Midnight Hammer," but a senior US general told lawmakers that, given the Pentagon's assessment that its MOP bunker buster could not destroy the Isfahan nuclear facility, only the entrance at the site was buried. This information suggests that the 2025 operation against Iran did not completely destroy all key nuclear facilities, allowing Iran to continue advancing underground construction amid the ongoing conflict.

As Pickaxe Mountain has returned to the international spotlight, the US-Iran war itself is also escalating sharply. The report noted that Iran announced on Wednesday it had struck 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the US military's sinking of 5 Iranian tankers—the largest tit-for-tat shipping attack in the war that has lasted six months. The conflict has pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel for the first time since July, with the US retail diesel price rising to more than $5.94 per gallon. Iran has also fired ballistic missiles at a base used by US forces in Jordan; the US and Iran have struck each other's military, shipping and energy assets since late August. The report said fighting between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen has also reignited, further increasing the threat to Middle East energy supplies.

Regarding the purpose of Pickaxe Mountain itself, CSIS analysts remain cautious. They warned that factors including "ongoing construction" suggest the facility "does not yet have enrichment capability (if that is its intended purpose)." The facility may serve one of three purposes related to Iran's nuclear program: a centrifuge assembly facility, an enrichment facility, or a secure shelter for other "nuclear-weapons-related" activities such as uranium metal conversion. Israeli intelligence agencies have hinted that Iran may have transferred centrifuges to Pickaxe Mountain as part of uranium enrichment work, but the facility's purpose as analyzed by CSIS remains speculative, and the US intelligence community has not reached a definitive conclusion on this.