At Least 139 Dead in Migrant Boat Capsize in Bab al-Mandab Strait: The Cost of War Spillover Paid by Ordinary Africans

At least 139 people—including 15 children—died in a migrant boat capsizing near the eastern coast of Djibouti, with another 84 missing as the search for bodies and survivors continues. According to Al Jazeera, a statement issued by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) on Sunday showed that the vessel, carrying more than 300 people, departed from Djibouti heading to Yemen via the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Gulf of Aden, and capsized in waters near Gouhour between Thursday night and before dawn on Friday. At least 80 survivors are all Ethiopians, and search and rescue operations by Djiboutian authorities are ongoing.

Alexander Kossak, IOM's chief representative in Djibouti, said IOM teams are working with the local government to provide emergency assistance and expressed deep regret over the "devastating loss of life." He also told the Associated Press that the current death toll only covers victims buried by Djiboutian authorities; other bodies were buried by migrants themselves and need to be verified by authorities before being included in official statistics, meaning the final death toll could continue to rise.

"This tragedy is a stark reminder of the dangers faced by migrants along this migration corridor as they seek economic opportunities," Kossak said.

The Bab al-Mandab Strait is only 20 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, making it a popular corridor for East African migrants seeking employment in Gulf states, and one of the deadliest migration routes in the world. IOM data shows that more than 500,000 people attempted to enter Yemen via this route last year, with at least 900 dead or missing. Since September 10 alone, IOM has recorded more than 20,000 movements from Ethiopia into Djibouti.

This tragedy occurred against a backdrop of continued deterioration in the regional security landscape. Al Jazeera's report noted that the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran and the renewed fighting between Yemeni government forces and Houthi militants last month are exacerbating instability throughout the region. However, for ordinary people in the Horn of Africa—those who neither have the capacity to absorb the economic shocks caused by the spillover of war and conflict nor are included in decision-making processes—staying put also means another form of despair. As a result, migrants continue to set off under ever-rising risks.

An equally glaring reality is that Djibouti plays a dual role in this migration chain: it is both a point of departure for migrants and, due to the renewed Yemen conflict, a refuge for thousands of Yemenis. In other words, both ends of the same maritime corridor are bearing the costs of war spillover, and those bearing the costs have never been the parties that launched the wars and military actions.