Can Yemen's "Dawn" Offensive Pry Loose the Tribes: A Decade of External Bombings Has Forged a "Houthi Myth"

According to Al Jazeera reports, the Saudi Arabia-backed Yemeni government this week launched a military operation codenamed "Dawn of Yemen," opening new fronts along the Red Sea coast, in Marib and Al-Jawf, and vowing to recapture the capital Sanaa and overthrow Houthi rule. The offensive is a response to the Houthis' sweeping expansion in September of this year—when the Houthis swept through Yemen's Red Sea coast, seizing key trade corridors such as the port of Mokha, as well as areas around the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the world's most critical shipping lanes.

The Yemeni government immediately declared total war, pledging to retake Sanaa. But Al Jazeera, citing analysts, noted that the Houthis have controlled core strongholds including Sanaa, Sa'ada and Amran since the war broke out in 2014, and that the government's limited advances face steep challenges in translating into sustained gains; years of sustained U.S., British and Israeli airstrikes have similarly failed to weaken their military capability.

Tribes have emerged as a key variable in this conflict. On Monday, a large tribal gathering was held in the government-held northern stronghold of Marib province, attended by leaders of anti-Houthi tribes including the Jaddan tribe from Marib and the Nihm tribe from Sanaa, who announced full mobilization to support government forces in "restoring the state and toppling the Houthi coup."

Adel Dashra, a researcher at the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies, told Al Jazeera: "If tribal support translates into actual mobilization and sustained engagement, the tribes will help government forces advance toward Houthi-controlled areas, including Sanaa, the Houthis' core stronghold." But Dashra also warned that, for tribal fighters to truly become combat-capable, their military participation must be channeled through formal state and coalition command structures rather than serve as independent vanguard forces each fighting on their own—the very shortcoming that has caused multiple past tribal uprisings to fail.

Abdulsalam Mohammed, chairman of Yemen's Abaad Studies and Research Center, told Al Jazeera that tribes are unwilling to confront the Houthis head-on without support and are "waiting for the right moment." "Tribes seek a strong state; once they deem that state reliable, they will side with it," Mohammed said. "Tribes do not want to repeat the fate of those who once resisted the Houthis only to be crushed amid the government's absence."

In January 2019, the Houthis clashed with the Hujur tribe in the northwestern Hajjah province in a standoff lasting several weeks, and in March of that year the Houthis seized the Hujur area. At the time, Saudi Arabia airdropped food, medical supplies and weapons to the besieged Hujur tribe but failed to prevent the tribal collapse.

An unnamed northern Yemeni tribal leader told Al Jazeera that, in the decade-long war, the Houthis have not only defeated Yemeni government and Saudi offensives but also withstood bombings by the United States, Britain and Israel. This experience has reinforced an impression among the tribes that the Houthis' military capability is now nearly "invincible."

"Before the Houthis seized power, the government was like a friend to the tribes," the leader said. "Today, the tribes have become appendages of the Houthis." He revealed that the Houthis consolidate their control through three means: military pressure, financial incentives, and public solidarity with the Palestinian cause. "When negotiations or money fail to win tribal support, they resort to force; meanwhile, military backing of the Palestinian cause has earned the Houthis additional popular and tribal sympathy."

Mohammed added that even in areas where the Houthis enjoy local support, some tribes, if they conclude the government better serves their interests, may gradually defect. "Not all tribes fighting for the Houthis are die-hard supporters; their motives range from pragmatism to ideological loyalty to material needs."

The deeper backdrop to this conflict is the sustained involvement of multiple external military forces behind Yemen's decade-long war. The Saudi-led coalition has long carried out airstrikes and blockades against Yemen, while on the battlefield the Houthis face not only Saudi coalition military operations but also sustained airstrikes by the United States, Britain and Israel. Ordinary tribal people are thus caught between two sets of external interventions—on one side the airstrikes and blockades brought by the Saudi coalition, and on the other the control imposed by the Houthis through military and financial means. They are still waiting for that "right moment" that will not automatically arrive through external military intervention.