Houthis Seize Strategic Point in Bab el-Mandeb Strait; Djibouti, Surrounded by Multinational Bases, Bears Spillover of Conflict

Perim Island, a sliver of land commanding the narrowest point of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, was seized in September by Iran-backed Houthi forces, bringing Middle East conflict to African shores with unmistakable clarity for the first time. According to Deutsche Welle, Perim lies roughly 20 kilometers from Djibouti and is only a 20-minute flight from Ethiopia. In early October, Yemeni government forces and the Saudi-led coalition launched a counteroffensive to contest this foothold controlling the southern gateway to the Red Sea. The Houthis have been attacking commercial vessels since the Gaza war erupted in 2023; their hold on Perim now gives them direct leverage to choke shipping at the entrance to the Gulf of Aden.

The first shock wave felt by African countries came in the form of refugee inflows and dwindling water supplies. Citing UNHCR data, Deutsche Welle reports that since September, at least 3,700 refugees have crossed from Yemen into Djibouti's northern Obock region, most of them women and children; UNHCR is preparing assistance for another 10,000 people who have not yet crossed. Obock borders Eritrea and has an extremely arid climate. Alessandra Roccaro, UNDP resident representative in Djibouti, told DW: "There is not much water here. There is no groundwater at all. Everything depends on desalination." Triple pressures of people, land, and water have converged on this arid frontier.

A heavier bill weighs on insurance costs and supply chains. Deutsche Welle notes that the United States, China, France, Italy, and Japan all operate military bases in Djibouti; the German Bundeswehr was once stationed there under an anti-piracy mission until 2021. An African nation of just over one million people simultaneously hosts the forces of five countries and serves as a global shipping transit hub. After the Houthis seized Perim, ship insurance and reinsurance costs have "nearly doubled." Roccaro stated bluntly: "Many ships are no longer willing to pass through the Suez Canal, and many are no longer willing to go through the Red Sea." Detours mean longer voyages and higher freight rates, ultimately passed on to ordinary consumers.

Hardest hit is landlocked neighbor Ethiopia. The world's most populous landlocked country routes roughly 95 percent of its imports and exports through Djibouti's ports. On September 23, fighting reignited in the Tigray region, with a rebel alliance at one point advancing along the transport corridor linking Djibouti's port to the Ethiopian heartland. Citing related analysis, Deutsche Welle reports that the national defense forces subsequently made reported gains, reducing the threat of another trade blockade, but the conflict has not ended and the corridor remains fragile. Meanwhile, due to prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, Ethiopia has already been forced to implement fuel rationing.

Deeper instability stems from a long-unresolved structural problem: access to the sea. Deutsche Welle notes that Eritrea's port of Assab is often viewed as a potential target for the forceful seizure of sea access. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly vowed to "correct" the injustice of losing coastline since Eritrean independence, and has attempted to secure sea access through a political agreement with Somaliland. Ethiopia has severed ties with Eritrea, and Sudan, Egypt, and Somalia could align with the Eritrean side in regional confrontations. If the conflict escalates into a regional war, passage through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and surrounding waters would face a new round of contraction.

Citing expert views, Deutsche Welle warns of another uncertainty: cooperation between the Shia Houthis and the Sunni armed group Al-Shabaab (the Somali youth militants) may deepen. The two differ significantly in ideology, but share an alliance space owing to common hostility toward Israel and the United States; the extent of concrete collaboration has no documented evidence.

Amid this cascade of being passively buffeted, three African nations have taken the initiative at the United Nations Security Council. The Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia, and Somalia — three African countries serving as non-permanent members of the Security Council — held an emergency meeting in mid-September, calling for guarantees of freedom of navigation and supporting a UN-framework resolution of the Yemen crisis. Deutsche Welle also reports that some African economies are benefiting from the rerouting of shipping lanes: ports in Kenya and Tanzania are bustling as commercial vessels divert, while Nigeria's Dangote Group has announced the launch of a refinery and an initial public offering in Kenya.