Malmö Pre-Election Observation: The Magnifying Glass of Far-Right Narratives and the Real Cost of Sweden's Immigration Policy

Sweden's national election this Sunday (September 14) has entered its final stretch. According to Al Jazeera, national polls show the center-left opposition alliance led by the Social Democrats leading the right-wing bloc by only a few percentage points, with the gap having narrowed steadily over the past month.

In the central square of Malmö, Sweden's third-largest city, rows of campaign booths stand shoulder to shoulder, with representatives from the Left Party and the far-right Sweden Democrats separated by less than a meter, each handing out flyers to passersby. The city has become a focal point of this election because of its diverse makeup—more than one-third of its 368,000 residents were born outside Sweden.

Malmö has been repeatedly cast by the right as a "warning of failed integration." Al Jazeera reported that in 2017, British populist politician Nigel Farage publicly labeled it "the rape capital of Europe"—a claim dismissed as nonsense by a well-known Swedish criminologist; Germany's AfD has similarly incorporated the city into its anti-immigration narrative.

Yet for those who live here, what truly weighs on them is not distant labels but jobs, rent and healthcare. Left Party municipal councillor Anwar Mahdi told Al Jazeera in an interview at city hall: "Right-wing politicians have completely ignored the socioeconomic challenges facing residents of the million-program housing estates." She was referring to the million homes built in Sweden between 1965 and 1974 for working-class families. Over the decades, as original residents moved out, these communities gradually became the landing points for new immigrants and refugees, and have been officially designated as "particularly vulnerable areas."

Mahdi's family fled Iraq for Sweden after the Gulf War, and she herself grew up in these communities. She said that growing up, she had friends from Bosnia, Palestine and Somalia, and "although we were not materially wealthy, we supported each other." The city's most famous son, Zlatan Ibrahimović, likewise hails from Rosengård, one of the million-program estates, which remains on the police list of "particularly vulnerable areas."

Mahdi was blunt that "pocket-book politics"—healthcare and unemployment—are the core concerns shared across classes. Malmö's unemployment rate stands at roughly 11%, making it one of Sweden's municipalities with the highest joblessness; healthcare is the top issue for voters nationwide. Lena, a 78-year-old Moderate Party campaign volunteer, places education and integration at the top of her list.

**The concrete costs of immigration policy**

Al Jazeera's report documented in detail the impact on ordinary families of a series of tightening measures since the current right-wing government took office:

Under the policies of the incumbent government, many young people who grew up in Sweden have been ordered to leave the country upon turning 18, while their parents are permitted to stay. The policy was suspended in March this year following strong public opposition, with reforms launched in June.

A more extreme case surfaced in February this year: the Swedish Migration Agency ordered eight-month-old Emmanuel, a baby boy born in Sweden, to be deported alone back to Iran, while his family retained their residence permits.

The government has also repeatedly raised the salary threshold for work permits, lifting it in June this year from 80% to 90% of the Swedish median wage. Binto Drammeh told Al Jazeera that her uncle had been ordered to leave the country because he did not meet the income threshold.

Meanwhile, the Sweden Democrats—a party with neo-Nazi roots—currently ranks as the second-largest party in the polls. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has pledged that if the right-wing bloc wins the election, he will give the party cabinet positions including the migration minister portfolio. That means the policies that have landed concretely on families could be further institutionalized.

**Gun crime and the recruitment of minors**

Crime is another major election issue. With a population of 10.6 million, Sweden ranks among the European countries with the highest rate of fatal shootings, although last year fatal violence fell to its lowest level since 2012. Al Jazeera reported that criminal networks are recruiting children as young as 12 to move weapons, traffic drugs and carry out contract killings; in 2024, Danish gangs were revealed to have hired Swedish teenagers to carry out shootings and bombings.

On how to tackle crime, the right emphasizes punishment and deterrence, while the left and center-left stress addressing root causes, rehabilitation and preventive social work. But the report also noted that party positions are not entirely clear-cut—the Social Democrats support lowering the age of criminal responsibility, while the Left Party, the Greens and the Centre Party voted against.

**Young voters on social media**

According to Al Jazeera's observations, young voters are turning out at higher rates than in the previous election. Jakob, 19, said: "Right now everything on my TikTok feed is accounts from the various parties—the likes and views are all very high, and lots of videos are trending." Sara, a Palestinian woman in her twenties, told Al Jazeera that "divisive politics" has become the norm, and that rhetoric around immigration and Islam makes her feel that "some people don't want integration or even assimilation at all—they just want you to leave."

Florist Adam, 20, who sells flowers at the edge of the square, voiced another layer of anxiety: "Young people are interested in politics, but many of us feel that no matter who comes to power, nothing will really change."