Nine Attacks, 100 Million Barrels of Reserves, and 'Control' Statement: The Hormuz Crack Under the Shadow of the US-Iran War

According to Al Jazeera reports, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio this week reiterated Washington's claim that it has implemented control over the Strait of Hormuz and that oil flow is approaching normal levels. However, a report from the UK Maritime Trade Operations the same day presented a different set of numbers: nine tanker attacks have occurred in the strait this month, accounting for half of the total attacks in the strait and the Persian Gulf in September. A Panama-flagged tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile while transiting the strait on Tuesday, injuring 12 crew members.

This gap between political rhetoric and actual shipping risks constitutes the core tension in Western energy policy under the shadow of the US-Iran war.

Last Friday, G7 countries coordinated with the International Energy Agency (IEA) to agree to immediately release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil, attempting to alleviate global supply concerns triggered by the war. The head of the IEA further stated on Wednesday that member states are prepared to release more reserves if necessary, and will prioritize releasing diesel, as diesel supply is "particularly tight."

Al Jazeera's report showed that the news briefly calmed the market, but oil prices overall continue to experience severe volatility. At 01:16 GMT on Wednesday, Brent crude futures rose to $101.53 per barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose to $89.39 per barrel. Oil prices first rose on attack news, then fell back on reserve release rumors—a movement that directly reflects the tug-of-war between political statements and supply expectations.

Deeper anxiety appeared in the bond market. According to Al Jazeera reports, US Treasury yields have climbed to their highest level in 24 years, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500, which hit record highs the previous trading day, both fell at Wednesday's close. The transmission of high oil prices into inflation is significantly increasing uncertainty about the interest rate path. This uncertainty spills over through energy prices and interest rate channels, and the ultimate cost is borne by end consumers—including Southern countries that are heavily dependent on oil imports and lack strategic reserve buffers.

Supply-side fragility has not been truly eased by the reserve release. Citing data from maritime intelligence company Kpler, Al Jazeera reported that September Persian Gulf (excluding Iran) oil flow recovered to over 81% of pre-war levels—81% itself means actual supply capacity has not yet returned to pre-war levels. The agency also noted that Middle East overall crude oil exports exceeded pre-war levels for 14 days in September, but the cost of this recovery is the rising freight, insurance, and security costs faced by shipping companies.

Rubio's description of "near normal" stands in stark contrast to the nine attacks, 12 injured, and 81% flow recovery rate. The G7 and IEA's move to release strategic reserves is structurally a measure to backstop market sentiment, not to resolve fundamental supply-side tensions. It has bought Western consumers a buffer period, but the longer energy premium, exchange rate fluctuations, and shipping costs will be borne by net oil-importing countries that lack reserve depth.