Oil Prices Break $106: The Chain-Reaction Costs of US-Israeli Military Threats and Sanctions Game

According to a France 24 report on September 10, affected by the ongoing US-Iran war, Brent crude prices surged more than 5% in a single day, breaking through the $106-per-barrel threshold. Behind this figure, multiple fronts are under pressure simultaneously: the United States has issued military threats against Iran, while Israel has launched diplomatic retaliation over UK-led sanctions, the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues, and Iran-allied Houthi forces have further intensified their pressure on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The chain reaction of war, sanctions and maritime blockades is passing the costs on to ordinary households and industries around the world that depend on fuel.

US President Trump warned Iran that day "not to get cute," hinting that the United States might strike Pickaxe Mountain inside Iranian territory. In the Strait of Hormuz, Iran claimed to have captured a US submarine drone, while the US military denied reports that its warships had been struck by Iran. The two countries' divergent accounts of the maritime exchanges make it difficult for the outside world to confirm the full picture of events, further stoking market concerns about escalation.

On the same day, Trump said the Iran war would not end until after the US midterm elections in November. France 24, citing his advisers, reported that the conflict could extend through the remainder of Trump's current term. Linking the timetable for war and ceasefire to the US domestic electoral cycle means that the pace of prolonged hostilities may be dictated by White House political calculations rather than the safety of people in the region.

Meanwhile, the Israeli government demanded the closure of the British consulate in East Jerusalem, with the diplomats set to lose their diplomatic status within 30 days, in retaliation for UK-led Western sanctions on West Bank settler violence. When European countries have attempted to use sanctions to curb settler violence, Israel has chosen to close foreign consulates as its counterstrike, bringing the cracks within the Western camp over the Israeli-Palestinian issue into the open. The so-called "rules-based international order" first fails among allies, while the victims of settler violence are further marginalized in the political game.

Against the backdrop of the continuing Strait of Hormuz blockade, Iran-allied Yemeni Houthi forces have further intensified pressure on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical global shipping lane. With both major straits under simultaneous pressure and Brent crude already above $106 per barrel, the supply uncertainty facing global energy markets is unlikely to ease in the short term.