Perim Island Falls to Houthis; Djibouti, Home to Bases of Five Nations, Bears Spillover Costs of Red Sea Conflict

Perim Island, seized by the Houthis in September, is only about 20 kilometers from Djibouti. The island forms the narrowest point of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, commanding the throat where the southern Red Sea enters the Gulf of Aden, and is only about a 20-minute flight from Ethiopia. According to DW reports, after the Iran-backed Houthis occupied the island, Yemeni government forces and Saudi allies launched a counteroffensive in early October. The Houthis have been attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea since the Gaza war erupted in 2023.

The civilian toll has almost immediately spilled over onto Djibouti. UN Refugee Agency data shows that since September, at least 3,700 refugees have entered Djibouti's northern Obock region from Yemen, most of them women and children, and UNHCR is preparing to assist another 10,000 who have not yet crossed. Obock, near the Eritrean border, has an extremely arid climate. UNDP Resident Representative in Djibouti Alessandra Roccasalvo told DW: "We don't have much water here. There is no groundwater at all. All water must be desalinated."

This situation stands in stark contrast to Djibouti's other identity. Despite a population of just over one million and a near-totally Muslim populace, Djibouti is one of the world's most densely concentrated hubs for foreign military presence: the United States, China, France, Italy, and Japan all operate military bases here, while the German Bundeswehr was stationed until 2021 as part of anti-piracy maritime operations. What these bases prize is precisely Djibouti's strategic position commanding the entrance to the Red Sea — and it is now this very chokepoint that has brought the war to Djibouti's doorstep.

Economic and logistical shocks are emerging. Roccasalvo pointed out that after the Houthis took control of Perim, commercial shipping insurance and reinsurance costs nearly doubled, and many vessels are no longer willing to transit the Suez Canal, with many also unwilling to sail through the Red Sea. She said this is cutting off funds that could otherwise drive the local economy upward: "Just like any country experiencing growth, it needs building materials, cement, raw materials."

For landlocked neighbor Ethiopia, the situation is even more fragile. As the world's most populous landlocked country, Ethiopia handles approximately 95% of its imports and exports through the port of Djibouti. Price increases driven by shipping insurance premiums have hit its national economy hard. On September 23, shortly after the Houthis seized Perim, fighting broke out once again in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region, adding further strain to an economy dependent on the Djibouti corridor. Citing reports, DW noted that Eritrea, Sudan, Egypt, and Somalia may lean toward siding with Eritrea rather than Ethiopia — Eritrea views Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy's remarks about "securing access to the sea" as a long-term threat. Eritrea's port of Assab, located on the edge of its narrow territory, is often regarded by analysts as the most likely target if Abiy chooses a military path.

DW also cited expert views pointing to signs of expanding cooperation between the Houthis and al-Shabaab inside Somalia: although the Shia Houthis and Sunni al-Shabaab are ideologically vastly different, they have found common ground in their hostility toward Israel and the United States, further complicating the security situation around the Red Sea-Bab el-Mandeb area.

The three African non-permanent members of the UN Security Council — the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, and Somalia — held an emergency meeting in mid-September, appealing for guarantees of freedom of navigation and calling for a resolution of the Yemen crisis within a UN framework.