Promises No Iran Strike Before Election; Pentagon Strike Plans and Force Deployment Already in Place

Trump made clear on Thursday on Truth Social that he would not order a resumption of strikes on Iran before the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, saying the two sides were "having productive discussions." However, according to reports over the past two days by The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Axios, The Atlantic and other outlets, the Pentagon has drawn up plans to strike Iran before the midterm elections and has instructed U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) to prepare for an imminent major combat operation.

This gap between "pledging no military action" and "actively preparing for war" has precedent in Trump's Iran decision-making. Al Jazeera found that on February 28 of this year, while talks with Iran were still underway and Trump himself had said just the day before that no decision had been made, the U.S. and Israel launched the first round of strikes on Iran; last June, near the end of Israel's 12-day war, the U.S. struck Iran again, while Trump said at the time he would announce a decision "within two weeks."

Trump wrote in his Thursday post: "I want to make it clear to everyone that, despite Iran's terrible situation... we will not attack Iran at any time before the November 3 U.S. midterm elections." But he did not mention the progress of military preparations, nor did he provide further details on the state of negotiations.

The core consideration driving Trump to restrain from military action before the election is voter reaction. According to a poll released Thursday by the Pew Research Center, about 65% of Americans said they disapprove of Trump's overall handling of the Iran war. A Reuters/Ipsos poll the same day showed that only 30% of Trump's supporters feel enthusiastic about voting in the midterm elections, well below 48% of Democratic supporters; about 13% of 2024 Trump voters have not yet decided whom to support in the congressional elections.

The war's concrete impact on ordinary Americans is concentrated in the cost of basic living. Since the war began, prices for U.S. gasoline, food and other basic goods have surged sharply due to the Middle East crisis. Trump claimed at the war's outset that it would "last a few weeks," but the war has now stretched on for eight months. The Pew survey shows that most Americans now believe the war will last at least another year, and even Republican-leaning and conservative voters are taking an increasingly negative view of the war.

Military preparations have not slowed because of political considerations. Last week the U.S. military dispatched about 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines to the Middle East, including the Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group, bringing the number of U.S. troops in the region to 20,000, with deployments covering several hundred aircraft and at least three carrier strike groups. Past U.S. force buildups in the Middle East and Caribbean have typically ended in military action.

Trump himself has sent signals in recent weeks about escalating the conflict after the election. At a Republican rally in September, he accused Iran of trying to influence the midterm election results, and said the conflict "will end immediately after the election"; in a Time magazine interview two weeks ago, he said it was "possible" to increase bombing of Iran after the election, but declined to elaborate. Analysts believe these statements are intended to reassure voters while warning Iran that it faces potential escalation after the election.

On the negotiating front, Washington recently rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on condition that the U.S. meet its demands — including lifting sanctions, unfreezing Iranian assets, and guaranteeing no further attacks. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said last week that Iran is considering a U.S. counter-proposal. The two sides signed a ceasefire agreement in June, but it quickly fell apart over the issue of control of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the U.S. has the upper hand on the Strait of Hormuz question, citing increased oil exports and a weakened Iranian economy; he has also expressed reluctance to reach a management agreement with Tehran, but also said "they are willing to give anything to stop [us]," so he has not ruled out considering it.

Analysts are divided over the post-midterm trajectory: a strong Republican performance could be read by Trump as a mandate to restart the war; if Republicans lose, with Trump no longer facing re-election pressure, he could in fact be more inclined toward military action — in any case, he has already said he will not run for the next presidential election, further reducing the domestic political constraints on him.