Sanctioning Russia, Attacking Iran, Then Buying Oil from Moscow — The Self-Destructive Logic of Washington's Energy Strategy

As the US-Israel war on Iran has already pushed US diesel prices up by roughly 70%, the Trump administration has openly turned to a country still under its unilateral sanctions — Russia — to seek millions of tons of diesel supply. Announced just weeks before the November 3 congressional midterm elections, the deal exposes the unavoidable structural contradiction between Washington's energy security strategy and its foreign intervention policy.

According to Al Jazeera, Trump wrote on Truth Social on October 9: "I have just completed a very successful discussion with Russian President Putin, and we both agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 tons of diesel fuel to the United States and global markets, with an additional 500,000 tons in November, and another 1,000,000 tons immediately after that." Trump added that Russia would deliver another 3 million tons of fuel in the "short term."

The Kremlin subsequently confirmed that the call between Putin and Trump lasted an hour and a half and covered large-scale economic cooperation. The Kremlin statement said, "The Russian side reaffirmed its readiness to supply oil and oil products to the US and world markets." Kirill Dmitriev, the Russian president's special representative, wrote on X that "Russia-US cooperation in the diesel and energy sectors will benefit the world."

The very premise of this cooperation is itself a political irony — on the one hand, the US maintains sweeping sanctions on Russian energy exports imposed since 2022, while on the other hand it treats Moscow as an emergency supplier when its own energy market comes under pressure. Meanwhile, according to Al Jazeera, Ukraine's Defense Ministry claims its airstrikes have knocked out more than half of Russia's refining capacity, a blow that directly undermines Moscow's ability to fulfill large-scale export commitments.

The direct driver of the fuel crisis is the US-Israel war on Iran. According to American Automobile Association data, the average US diesel price has reached $6.27 per gallon, up roughly 70% from pre-war levels. Diesel is used in agriculture, home heating and freight transportation, and its price is directly transmitted into food and consumer goods inflation, hitting working-class families and farm operators particularly hard. Washington has twice recently stepped in to try to push prices down: first by pressuring G7 allies to release 100 million barrels from strategic reserves, and then by expanding the permitted use of untaxed red diesel — normally restricted to agricultural machinery. Diesel prices have edged down slightly over the past week, but have still risen by roughly 70% cumulatively since the war broke out.

According to Al Jazeera, Trump has publicly blamed the price increases on the Democratic Party and Ukraine rather than on the war itself. The timing of the 70% price surge closely coincides with the launch of the US-Israel war on Iran, and the narrative of shifting blame onto domestic political opponents and Ukraine is hard to reconcile with this basic causal relationship.

Another backdrop to the deal is the bargaining power Moscow is regaining. Earlier this week, Putin met with Iranian President Pezeshkian in Turkmenistan, pledged to "do everything possible" to help end the war, and briefed Trump on his willingness to consider when to resume peace talks. The Kremlin also revealed that Trump offered Putin birthday wishes during the call, wishing him "success and good health." The two leaders also expressed interest in attending the APEC summit in China in November.

Whether Russia will actually deliver the promised diesel quantities on schedule remains unconfirmed by independent sources; the agreement involves a country still under US sanctions, and cross-border payments, logistics and insurance all face legal hurdles; and whether domestic diesel prices can be meaningfully lowered before the midterm elections remains to be seen.