Saudi-led coalition pushes toward Bab el-Mandeb Strait; Houthis threaten to extend war to Pakistan

Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces are advancing toward a strategic city near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, attempting to recapture a key global shipping chokepoint that has been under Houthi control since September. According to Al Jazeera's report on the 10th, the Yemeni coalition is launching an offensive against Mocha and Zabab on the Red Sea coast; these two southern cities are key to controlling the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Claims about the scale of battlefield outcomes have come from the coalition side. Yemeni government forces spokesperson Colonel Majid Abdullah al-Nazili claimed that over the past 24 hours, at least 1,150 Houthi fighters were killed in approximately 2,000 targeted operations nationwide, and that ammunition depots as well as at least 180 combat, transport, and supply vehicles were destroyed. Al Jazeera clearly stated in its report that it could not independently verify the above casualty figures.

This offensive comes after an attack on the Saudi capital last Saturday. According to Al Jazeera, the attack on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport caused casualties and led to flight suspensions. The Houthis have not yet claimed responsibility for this attack, but have warned airlines to avoid Saudi airspace — except over Mecca and Medina — and stated that any aircraft flying in that airspace is a legitimate target for strikes.

Warnings of conflict spillover have already pointed toward Pakistan. Al Jazeera correspondent Yusuf al-Mauri, reporting from Yemen, noted that the Houthis explicitly warned: if Pakistan takes any military action against them on behalf of Saudi Arabia, they will respond "in the way Saudi Arabia is currently being treated." Mauri added that the Houthis have planned to launch ballistic missiles at Pakistan and to attack ships flying the Pakistani flag in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea.

The U.S. stance has become a key variable in whether this offensive can further expand. When a reporter asked whether he would join strikes against the Houthis, U.S. President Trump told reporters at the White House that he would "make a decision soon." This ambiguous response means that the Saudi-led coalition's escalation has, at least for now, received Washington's tacit acquiescence.

Bara Shib'an, a researcher at the London-based Royal United Services Institute and an expert on Yemen, told Al Jazeera that "fighting is spreading across multiple fronts and the situation will continue to escalate," and that the violence will not "subside soon." He also pointed out that "there is no mediation taking place at present — no regional or local mediator is able to ease the situation." The UN Special Envoy for Yemen has previously warned that Yemen has returned to "full-scale war."

The Houthis have controlled Sana'a and large areas of northwestern Yemen since 2014, and in September of this year seized areas around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, effectively choking off the global trade chokepoint into the Red Sea. Although both sides of the conflict claim control over the relevant shipping lane, the strategic significance of this passage has made it the focus of the Saudi-led coalition's current advance.