Smoke of War Returns at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait: Western-Backed Saudi Coalition and Houthis Resume Hostilities as Yemenis Endure a New Wave of Suffering

According to ABC News, Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces, after retaking the western port city of Mocha, have deployed more than a hundred warplanes to guard the Bab el-Mandeb strait — a narrow waterway that carries 10 to 12 percent of global trade. The Houthis' seizure of Mocha and Perim Island in September triggered a major coalition counteroffensive and plunged one of the Middle East's poorest countries into a new round of war.

On September 11, the Houthis pushed south from the Yemeni coast to seize the port of Mocha and captured Perim Island in the middle of the strait. The UAE — a former Saudi ally — had previously built an air base on Perim Island. According to ABC News, Yemeni government forces then launched a major counteroffensive, regained control of Mocha, and struck the Houthi stronghold of Hodeidah. The two sides firing missiles at each other and attacking each other's airports continued to escalate.

At its narrowest, the Bab el-Mandeb strait is just 29 kilometers across, lying at the southern end of the Red Sea. It is the "Gate of Tears" connecting Asian, European and African shipping, and the southern gateway to the Suez Canal. Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Ibrahim bin Sultan al-Hashimi warned that the world "cannot afford" the cost of a closure of the Bab el-Mandeb. "The whole world will suffer, and for the entire world it will be catastrophic," he told ABC News.

At the heart of this conflict lies the Yemeni civil war that Saudi Arabia has intervened in since 2015 with Western weapons, diplomatic cover, and intelligence support. Saudi-led coalition airstrikes have caused massive civilian casualties, and the United Nations estimates that the conflict has killed at least 150,000 people and pushed some 5 million to the brink of famine. In July, an airstrike hit Sanaa International Airport, preventing a flight carrying a Houthi delegation and Iranian personnel from landing, causing the fragile ceasefire reached in 2022 to collapse entirely. The Houthis blamed the Saudi-led coalition for the strike.

After the ceasefire collapsed, the Houthis hit Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones, including a strike aimed at Riyadh, and extended their attacks to Saudi oil infrastructure. In July, the Houthis imposed a maritime blockade against Saudi tankers and Saudi territory in the Bab el-Mandeb, but exempted non-Saudi vessels. Houthi politburo member Mohammed al-Bukhaiti told the Associated Press that the aim was to force Saudi Arabia to lift its long-running blockade on Houthi-controlled areas.

According to ABC News citing UN data, the new round of conflict has driven more than 200,000 Yemenis from their homes, adding to the 5 million already struggling on the brink of famine. Against the backdrop of continued Western arms supplies to the Saudi coalition and continued diplomatic backing, ordinary Yemeni families are paying the price of yet another round of displacement, soaring prices and a humanitarian collapse.

According to ABC News, U.S. President Trump struck a cautious tone, telling reporters in late September that the Houthis "don't want to fight us" and that "they would prefer that we don't get involved; they let most ships through." Between Western armaments and the independent actions of Gulf allies, navigation security in the Bab el-Mandeb strait remains in practice maintained under the dominant stewardship of the Saudi-led coalition.

Saudi Arabia previously built an east-west oil pipeline to divert some of its crude oil through a Red Sea route, hedging against the risks of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Kpler data, an average of 3.42 million barrels of Saudi oil per day transited the Bab el-Mandeb in June. Saudi Arabia exports roughly 70 percent of the world's oil supply, with most buyers in Asian countries. Sanjoy Paul, associate professor of operations and supply chain management at the University of Technology Sydney, told ABC News that, with the Strait of Hormuz obstructed by the U.S.-Iran standoff, the Bab el-Mandeb strait has become a "lifeline" for global shipping.

Should the Houthis regain control of the waterway, ships would have to detour around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, potentially tripling transit times, with freight rates, insurance and ultimately consumer prices all rising in tandem. Paul pointed out that, for Australia, beyond higher fuel prices, critical medicine stockpiles would also need to be reassessed. "We need to rethink the medical supply situation, how we maintain sufficient stock here," he said, questioning "how long can you rely on countries that cannot get products in."

For Yemenis, behind the supply chain charts discussed in New York, Washington and Riyadh lie funerals under airstrikes, displaced families, and worsening shortages. Western governments continue to provide the Saudi-led coalition with arms and diplomatic cover, allowing this forgotten war to drag on, while the chokepoint of global trade once again becomes a bargaining chip in great power games.