Strait of Hormuz Disruption Rattles Global Energy Landscape; U.S. Strategic Reserves Hit Lowest Level in Over 40 Years

As officials from the world's major energy producers and consumers gathered in Riyadh for "Riyadh Energy Week," a Houthi attack on King Khalid International Airport in Yemen killed 12 and injured 309. Saudi Arabia's General Authority of Civil Aviation reported the figures. Italy, one of the co-hosts of the 17th International Energy Forum, attended only via video, while the other co-host, Nigeria, sent representatives — the very contraction of the meeting's stature reflects how the spillover of conflict has begun to interfere with the daily workings of global energy governance.

According to Al Jazeera, the ministerial meeting of the 17th International Energy Forum opened on Sunday, running concurrently as a side event of the 25th World Petroleum Council Energy Conference. The forum's 68 member states include major oil and gas producers and consumers such as Saudi Arabia, the United States and Russia, accounting for more than 90% of global oil and gas supply and demand. As the meeting convened, the U.S.-Israel war against Iran had already hammered energy transport flows, and governments were being forced to reassess their own energy security.

**Chokehold: There Is No Plan B for Hormuz**

The spillover of conflict is first visible at geographic chokepoints. Citing data, Al Jazeera noted that before the war, roughly 27% of global seaborne oil trade and nearly 20% of liquefied natural gas trade passed through the Strait of Hormuz, located on the eastern side of the Arabian Peninsula. On the western side of the peninsula, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, and the Suez Canal connects the Red Sea to the Mediterranean. Both have seen traffic decline amid the escalation of hostilities and the intensification of Yemen's civil war, with some energy cargoes forced to reroute around Africa, pushing up transport distances and costs.

"This may be the first time we are truly seeing a large-scale blockade of one chokepoint," Richard Matthews, head of consulting and research at the London shipbroking and maritime advisory firm Gibson Shipbrokers, told Al Jazeera. He pointed out that the essential difference between Hormuz and other chokepoints lies in the fact that "there is no alternative seaborne route. There are some pipelines, but there is no alternative — that is why it matters so much in terms of volumes."

**Global South Bears the Brunt**

The cost of energy disruption is being passed down the supply chain. Data compiled by Al Jazeera show that about 90% of Eritrea's and Madagascar's oil supply comes from the Middle East, followed in order by Pakistan (78%), Japan (77%) and Kenya (77%). Natural gas is harder to substitute — most of it travels through the Strait of Hormuz in liquefied form from Qatar and the UAE. According to Al Jazeera statistics, 31% of South Korea's natural gas comes from the Middle East, followed by India (29%), Pakistan (27%) and Taiwan (26%).

These dependency figures point to a clear power structure: in supply disruptions triggered by Western military operations, countries that have neither strategic reserves nor alternative sources bear the most direct price and shortage shocks. Al Jazeera noted that even if transactions can be maintained, the additional costs will be passed down the chain to consumers, and poor importing countries — lacking reserves — face particular difficulty in finding alternative supplies.

**Western Reserves Run Short; The Buffer Is Vanishing**

National emergency oil stocks were meant to serve as the main buffer in this round of conflict, but Western countries are approaching the limit of how much they can release. Citing warnings from energy industry leaders, Al Jazeera reported that the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1982.

Amin Nasser, president of Saudi Aramco, said at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London on Monday: "Estimates indicate that current global commercial inventories stand at less than 6 billion barrels, the vast majority of which are in reality difficult to draw on."

The International Energy Agency already released a record 400 million barrels of crude oil in March. According to Al Jazeera, the agency is preparing to release another 100 million barrels of crude oil and refined products to dampen soaring diesel prices, although some of these may still be crude released in March that has yet to reach the market. Gulf of Mexico storms and a fresh round of attacks inside Saudi Arabia have pushed supply pressures higher again, keeping oil prices above $100 per barrel.

On the other side of Western countries approaching their release limits lies a deeper power asymmetry behind the reserve landscape. Data cited by Al Jazeera show that, before this year's round of releases, China held roughly 1.4 billion barrels of strategic reserves — far more than the rest of the world combined. The United States followed with 413 million barrels, with Japan at 263 million barrels. This means that, in the crisis triggered by the war launched by the United States and Israel, countries with ample reserves enjoy greater buffers, while Global South countries enduring the most direct energy supply shocks have neither the corresponding resources nor a seat at the decision-making table.