Talking Ceasefire While Buying Russian Oil: Trump's Diesel Deal Exposes the Erosion of the Pro-Ukraine Line

On the same day US-led Ukraine ceasefire negotiations were held in Miami, US President Trump disclosed that a large-scale diesel supply agreement had been reached with Russia — a move that directly reverses his administration's years-long established line of pressuring Moscow. According to France 24, Trump announced, following a phone call with Russian President Putin, that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel to the US and global markets, with an additional 500,000 tons to follow in November.

The US Treasury subsequently issued a temporary license permitting Russian diesel to flow into global markets. The specific scope and validity period of the license have not been disclosed. It remains unclear whether Trump and Putin discussed Ukraine during their call.

This "energy diplomacy" took place in the shadow of another diplomatic effort. After the meeting, US envoy Steve Witkoff posted on X that the Miami talks had been "constructive" and that "potential paths" had been discussed for de-escalating the fighting, ending the conflict to avoid intensification in winter, and pursuing lasting peace. According to Agence France-Presse, participants included the E3 (UK, France, Germany), the European Commission, Ukraine and NATO. The talks also covered energy resilience, food exports, security guarantees and "long-term security arrangements for Ukraine and Europe to prevent future conflicts," as well as support for Ukraine's post-war reconstruction and economic recovery, including EU accession. Witkoff did not say whether the parties would continue meeting as scheduled on Saturday.

The juxtaposition of these two tracks reveals this US administration's actual ranking of priorities on Russia policy. Secretary of State Rubio issued a warning to reporters in Lisbon on Thursday: "The stalemate ends one way — escalation." He added: "We do not believe there is a military solution to this conflict." Rubio also warned that the fighting could spread to NATO neighbors. Yet, running in parallel with this diplomatic rhetoric, Trump has chosen the short-term goal of bringing fuel prices down, placing the diesel deal above the existing framework of pressuring Russia.

Even more contentious is the logic of attribution. France 24 noted that the real factor disrupting global energy supply is the US-Israeli war against Iran, but Trump has blamed surging fuel prices on Ukraine's strikes against Russian refining facilities. In other words, when the actual spillover effects of war are being amplified by US actions themselves, the administration has shifted the blame onto the party resisting invasion.

Progress at the negotiating table also remains limited. Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Kushner visited Moscow and Kyiv last month, but previous rounds of mediation have stalled over Moscow's sweeping territorial demands — particularly its insistence on controlling the entire Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, including areas still held by Kyiv. Zelensky has refused to cede Ukrainian-controlled territory, warning that Russia could use it as a springboard for a new offensive. Citing informed sources, AFP reported that US negotiators and Russian and Ukrainian officials are drafting new proposals, but those talks have so far produced limited results.

Battlefield realities have left no buffer for diplomacy. Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Russian forces now occupy roughly one-fifth of Ukrainian territory. France 24 noted that on the very day Miami was discussing "lasting peace," Russian forces struck a bus in the Ukrainian frontline city of Kramatorsk, killing 30 people.

The economic spillover from the war is also being felt on the European side. According to US sources, European officials have expressed concern about high energy costs and the broader economic consequences of the conflict. With winter approaching, the risk of continued attacks on critical infrastructure is rising in tandem with the urgency of the negotiation window.

Washington hopes to secure diplomatic progress before the November congressional midterm elections and has arranged broader talks involving Russia and Ukraine for later this month. The Kremlin has signaled that such three-party negotiations could resume in October, but no specific dates have been announced.