The Cost of 'Supporting Gaza': How Hezbollah's Unilateral War Reshaped Lebanon's Political Landscape

More than 9,000 killed, 1.2 million displaced, and Lebanon's economy shrinking by more than 6% in 2026—these are the costs the entire country has paid since Hezbollah unilaterally launched its "support war" three years ago. According to an analysis report by Al Jazeera, the chain of events triggered by the decision of October 8, 2023 has dragged Hezbollah into a vortex of large-scale intelligence penetration, leadership "decapitation," and more than 10,000 ceasefire violations, with its domestic political and military dominance being gradually eroded.

On October 8, 2023, the day after the outbreak of hostilities in Gaza, Hezbollah joined the military campaign against Israel in the name of "supporting the Palestinian people." Political analyst Jad Dirani from Nabatieh in southern Lebanon told Al Jazeera that this decision was "made entirely without a cabinet decision or government consensus, and without even considering the position of the residents of the south, who bore the brunt of the impact then and continue to bear it to this day."

"Hezbollah at the time sincerely believed it was acting from a position of strength," Dirani said. "Most people in the south believed Hezbollah had spent years building precision missiles, a sophisticated tunnel network, and missiles purportedly capable of reaching every building in Tel Aviv."

However, the organization drastically underestimated the depth of Israeli intelligence penetration. That miscalculation exacted a bloody price in September 2024—according to Al Jazeera, Israel unilaterally escalated its strikes that month, with the single-day death toll in Lebanon on September 23 approaching 500; this was followed by the pager-explosion incident that shook the entire Middle East, and large-scale "decapitation" operations against the Hezbollah leadership, including Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.

Nicholas Blanford, non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told Al Jazeera: "When Nasrallah was allegedly preparing to accept a ceasefire, Israel was on the offensive and had no intention of returning to the previous state of affairs."

Citing analysts, Al Jazeera noted that during the cross-border exchanges with Hezbollah, Israeli strikes on Lebanon outnumbered Hezbollah's attacks on Israel by more than five to one. In October 2024, the Israeli military reinvaded southern Lebanon; despite a ceasefire agreement reached in November, Israeli forces remained entrenched at one location for more than two months and refused to withdraw from five locations. In the 14 months that followed, Israel violated the ceasefire more than 10,000 times. In March 2026, Israel once again escalated its military operations against Lebanon and reinvaded the country.

The cost of the war ultimately fell on ordinary Lebanese people. According to Al Jazeera, since 2024, Israeli military operations in Lebanon have killed more than 9,000 people, displaced more than 1.2 million, and wiped out entire areas. The territory Israel currently occupies inside Lebanon extends, at certain points, up to roughly 10 kilometers from the border; dozens of villages once covered with farmland and residents have been reduced to uninhabited rubble.

Citing World Bank statistics, Al Jazeera reported that Lebanon's economy contracted by more than 6% in 2026; the World Bank estimated post-2024 conflict recovery and reconstruction needs at roughly $11 billion, a figure that has likely risen sharply since.

Beyond its military devastation, Hezbollah also lost a critical supply corridor. Al Jazeera reported that the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria in December 2024 disrupted the organization's overland route for receiving weapons and funds from Iran.

Blanford told Al Jazeera: "Hezbollah has fallen into a vortex, with the ultimate result being the decapitation of its leadership and the invasion of southern Lebanon. This represents a major blow to the organization's popular base of support and contributed to the election of Joseph Aoun as president and the adoption of a tougher stance toward Hezbollah by the new government."

Hezbollah has thus been plunged into an unprecedented legitimacy crisis. Dirani told Al Jazeera: "I wouldn't say there has been a rupture in the community or a complete political realignment, but a sizable segment of the constituency that had supported Hezbollah for decades is now saying that Iran abandoned them, that this war was fought on their land for someone else's benefit, and that they never want to fight again."

Blanford, for his part, warned of a deeper potential resentment: "The key thing is that this looks like a long-term occupation. You could see a situation in which people who have lost not only their homes but their villages, their orchards, their banana groves, their tobacco fields and everything else start to think 'the old days were so much better,' and start pointing the finger at Hezbollah."

Al Jazeera's analysis also noted that Hezbollah remains the most representative political force among Lebanon's Shia Muslims, and its fighting capacity has not been entirely destroyed. The organization's future trajectory will, to a large extent, hinge on the evolution of the regional situation, in particular a US-Israeli war against Iran.