Three Years of War Reshape the Middle East Landscape: U.S. Security Architecture Collapses, Israel Becomes a Strategic Liability

According to a retrospective report published by Al Jazeera on October 8, the "October 7" attack and the three years of war that followed have completely rewritten the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East: the war against Iran, in which the United States itself became embroiled, shattered the security umbrella over its Gulf allies, while Israel launched what Al Jazeera characterizes as a genocidal war in Gaza and expanded on multiple fronts in Lebanon and Syria — yet rather than consolidating its regional role, it has increasingly become a strategic liability in Washington's eyes after repeatedly crossing international red lines.

"Before 'October 7,' the entire U.S. policy in the Middle East was built on normalizing Israel's regional presence through the so-called 'Abraham Accords'; Israel's response to the attack ended that path," — HA Hellyer, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told Al Jazeera in his assessment, pointing directly to the collapse of the underlying logic of U.S. Middle East strategy.

## Multi-Front Expansion and Regional Vacuum

According to Al Jazeera, over the past three years, several leaders of Lebanon's Hezbollah and Palestinian Hamas have been killed in Israeli targeted strikes, and Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was also assassinated in February this year. The Israeli military invaded Lebanon twice, in October 2024 and March 2026, and seized Syrian territory during the brief power vacuum left after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was overthrown at the end of 2024. In Gaza, more than 74,000 Palestinians have been killed, most urban areas have been reduced to rubble, and the Israeli military has occupied most of the territory.

## Shattered Security Umbrella and Broken Red Lines

Al Jazeera pointed out that after the United States went to war with Iran this year, it watched helplessly as Tehran struck back at its Gulf allies with drones and missiles — Qatar's Ras Laffan natural gas facility, the area near Dubai airport, and the Fujairah oil zone were all attacked. In September, Yemen's Houthi forces advanced southward along the Red Sea coast, seizing the port of Mocha and nearby islands, further tightening their grip on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical corridor for global trade and energy transportation.

The Israeli military's 2025 strike on Doha, Qatar, crossed previously recognized red lines, leading multiple governments to view Israel as the primary source of instability in the Middle East. Citing Hellyer, Al Jazeera reported: "Confidence in the United States as the sole sufficient security guarantor has been shaken." He noted that this is the backdrop against which Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Security Pact in August, agreeing that an attack on any one signatory would be treated as an attack on all signatories — regional states are searching far and wide for alternative guarantees.

## Alliance Restructuring and Role Reversal

The influence of external actors has risen in parallel. Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the Chatham House think tank, told Al Jazeera: "The Middle East has always been characterized by multi-directional alliances, but now more than ever." Turkey's increased leverage in Syrian affairs and China's intervention in the process of ending the Iran war to safeguard its own energy security both reflect this.

Vakil offered a widely cited reversal judgment: "Ironically, since 'October 7,' it is precisely Israel that has become the revisionist side, while Iran has almost become the status-quo side." She also cautioned against equating Israel with a regional superpower: "Israel may still be the most powerful military force in the Middle East, but true power usually means being able to project stability, and Israel has never demonstrated that capability or willingness."

## Uneven Distribution of Economic Costs

According to Al Jazeera, Iran's economic leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has exerted sustained pressure on Israel, the United States, and their partners. In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) modestly revised its 2026 global economic growth forecast from 3.3% to 3.1%; the West avoided 1970s-style turbulence by relying on emergency reserves, record U.S. oil production, and supplies from places such as Norway, while Gulf exporters bore impacts far exceeding those suffered by the West — the IMF cut Saudi Arabia's growth forecast from 4.5% to 3.1%, while Qatar's outlook swung from an expected 6.1% growth to a severe contraction of 8.6%.

## From Strategic Asset to Liability

Citing Israeli political economist Hillel Hervil, Al Jazeera noted: "Interestingly, in many respects, the decline in Western dependence on Gulf oil has actually heightened the degree to which Israel has become a liability for the United States." He explained that what has long sustained the U.S.-Israel alliance is Israel's status as a strategic foothold in an oil-rich region — and that logic is now breaking down. Hervil revealed that there are voices within Israel arguing that the current crisis might compel Gulf states to align with it, but he considers such a judgment "rather slim" — after all, Israel itself is the principal instigator of conflict in the region since "October 7."