Trump says war with Iran will "end immediately" after midterm elections; US war rationale continues to clash with intelligence assessments

According to Al Jazeera, US President Trump said on September 9 that the war with Iran will "end immediately" after the November 3 US midterm elections, and that the US side is currently not seeking to resume negotiations with Tehran. This military operation, which has now lasted more than half a year, has thus been openly tied to a domestic US political agenda that will determine control of Congress.

"This war will end immediately after our election," Trump told reporters on Wednesday before boarding Air Force One bound for Dallas, Texas. He accused Iran of attempting to delay the end of the war in order to wait for a more favorable political environment in the United States, saying Iran is "desperately trying to influence the election so that some weak people can come to power." Trump implied that Tehran is counting on the Democrats to "let them be and let them have nuclear weapons," and claimed: "What they want is nuclear weapons, and once they have them, the whole world will be in deep trouble."

Al Jazeera noted that just hours before Trump made these remarks, the US military on Tuesday struck five Iranian oil tankers, citing retaliation for Iran's missile attack on a US Navy vessel. Trump subsequently warned that there would be more strikes: "You'll see more."

However, the framing of the war as a response to an "imminent" nuclear threat has, from the outset, diverged from the assessments of US intelligence agencies. According to reports cited by Al Jazeera, US intelligence agencies have consistently expressed skepticism about whether Iran is developing nuclear weapons, although concerns about its uranium enrichment levels remain. Iran has long denied seeking nuclear weapons, saying its enrichment activities are solely for civilian electric power.

Al Jazeera recalled that when the war broke out on February 28, the "Iranian nuclear program" was the core rationale cited by the US and Israel for launching military action. But just before the war began, related nuclear negotiations were still under way. Trump had previously pulled the United States out of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which had set limits on the scale and scope of Iran's uranium enrichment. When asked whether he would resume JCPOA negotiations, Trump's response was self-contradictory. "What I'm doing goes far beyond a nuclear deal. There are a lot more things than the nuclear issue," he said on the one hand. But when discussing negotiations themselves, he said "to be honest, we are not seeking this," and added: "Originally, I wanted to reach a deal. We have come this far. They don't have much land left now."

Al Jazeera also noted that Chris Wright, the Trump administration's Energy Secretary, suggested on ABC News on Sunday that the US side may not reach a nuclear deal at all, but would instead continue to use strikes to weaken Iran's nuclear infrastructure. During the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025, the US side carried out targeted strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities; Trump claimed at the time that the strikes had "completely destroyed" Iran's nuclear program.

The global spillover effects of the war have already shown up in energy markets. According to Al Jazeera, driven by the escalating US-Iran conflict, international oil prices broke through $100 per barrel on the 9th, threatening further increases in costs for consumers worldwide. Domestically, American public support for the war continues to decline: a poll last month showed that only 31% of Americans support military action against Iran, a further drop from 37% in March. The report noted that the Trump administration has continued to try to lower the temperature on the conflict ahead of the midterm elections, but surging oil prices and the protracted nature of the war are making this strategy face greater resistance.