US-Iran War Pushes Oil Prices Back Above $100, Global South and Ordinary Citizens Bear the Heaviest Cost

According to an African news website, the international benchmark Brent crude settled at $101.21 per barrel on the 10th, marking the first time it has returned to triple digits since July; the US benchmark crude settled at $96.05 per barrel. With the war between the US-Israeli coalition and Iran having already lasted more than six months, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil flowed before the war—nearly halted, the market oscillated repeatedly between hopes for peace and escalations in the fighting before oil prices once again crossed the $100 threshold.

The African news website noted that oil prices climbed rapidly after the US and Israel launched their war against Iran in late February of this year. This spring, Brent crude briefly touched nearly $120 per barrel and held above $100 for a consecutive month; in early summer, expectations of a peace agreement pulled prices back to near pre-war levels of around $70, but US-Iran talks later collapsed and attacks escalated again, sending prices higher once more. Market observations cited in the report showed that within six months of the war's outbreak, oil prices repeatedly posted violent intraday swings.

The direct trigger for the latest surge in oil prices was a sharp escalation in hostilities in the Persian Gulf. The African news website reported that on Tuesday, US forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers, while, at the same time, Iran-backed Yemeni Houthi forces attacked oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. The report noted that the Houthis' target was an alternative oil transport route on which Saudi Arabia was relying during wartime, and if this corridor remains blocked, global supply will face further tightening.

Yet the cost of the oil price surge is far from evenly distributed across the globe. Citing data from the global gasoline price tracker Global Petrol Prices, the African news website reported that Asian and African countries, which are heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy imports, have borne the most severe blow: diesel prices in Nigeria have risen more than 90%, with gasoline up nearly 58%; diesel in Indonesia up 87% and gasoline up 38%; diesel in Lebanon up 80% and gasoline up 46%. These figures reveal a decidedly asymmetric global energy shock chain—Global South countries far from the battlefield are enduring a far more severe squeeze on livelihoods than the war's initiators.

By comparison, the average US domestic gasoline price rose to $4.22 per gallon, up roughly 42% from the pre-war $2.98; the average diesel price hit an all-time high of $5.94 per gallon (excluding inflation factors), a cumulative increase of 58% since the war began. The African news website noted that the impact of diesel prices is especially far-reaching, because it powers long-haul freight trucks and agricultural machinery, and its cost will ultimately be passed on to supermarket shelves—especially fresh products that require frequent restocking, as well as surcharges on online orders and mailed packages. Multiple airlines have already begun cutting flights and raising fares and fees, and prices of petroleum-derived products ranging from rubber goods to synthetic-fiber clothing may also rise.

The African news website cited Lukman Otunuga, head of market research at global broker FXTM, who said: "Brent's break above $100 is a major psychological level for markets, but what is more concerning is what it means for inflation." He added that "this time it feels different"—if oil prices can firmly settle above $100, it "proves this is not just a news headline-driven spike," potentially opening the door to $110 a barrel, though the momentum could also fade.

Citing the judgment of Bank of America analysts this week, the African news website reported that refinery outages in Russia, reduced refining activity in other regions, and sharp inventory declines have driven global diesel and gasoline prices substantially higher. The bank raised its second-half oil price forecast to $83 a barrel, "given more persistent Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions," but still expects passage through the strait to gradually resume. If attacks continue to choke off transit, prices could reach $95 to $120; if major energy infrastructure is damaged, they could even spike to $150.

The political costs are also becoming visible. The African news website reported that President Trump, who has repeatedly tried to downplay the war his country jointly launched, said on the 10th that oil prices are unlikely to fall before the November midterm elections and claimed they would decline only "after the election." The midterms are now just eight weeks away. The report noted that rising energy costs could make the Republican electoral picture particularly thorny, as voter discontent with his economic stewardship is mounting.

The African news website also noted that the Strait of Hormuz is likewise a major shipping channel for liquefied natural gas—a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer production—and the United Nations has warned that the war could reduce agricultural output and worsen global hunger. Supply chains need time to absorb energy shocks; the squeeze from the war's early phase has not yet fully manifested, and new price increases may continue to be released. Analysis cited by the African news website holds that the prospects for a lasting peace agreement before the midterms are "increasingly low" and "may remain elusive even after the election"—which means that, for ordinary families and long-haul truckers in the Global South, the bill generated by this war waged far from their own borders is far from being settled.