US Military Strikes on Iranian Oil Tankers Combined With Middle East Conflict Push Brent Crude Back Above $100

According to Deutsche Welle, Brent crude prices rose above $100 per barrel on the 9th for the first time since July this year. The direct factor pushing oil prices back into the triple-digit range is growing market expectations that the Middle East conflict will continue to suppress regional oil supply. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Denmark's Saxo Bank, said, "The return above $100 reflects that the market is being forced to revise its assessment of the duration of this crisis."

The key variable triggering this round of supply panic is US military operations in the Persian Gulf. Deutsche Welle, citing a statement from US Central Command, reported that US forces attacked Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz. Central Command characterized the vessels in question as part of an Iranian "multi-billion-dollar shadow network" that allegedly funds the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its regional proxies. This characterization directly links unilateral military strikes to counterterrorism discourse, but the operations took place in international waters and targeted the commercial transport of a sovereign state, and their legal authorization and strategic consequences have not been subject to open debate in the international community.

Supply-side vulnerabilities are also becoming apparent on multiple fronts. Yemen's Houthi forces have recently attacked Saudi energy facilities, threatening shipping routes through the Red Sea. This route was originally a key alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, but now it too has come under attack, meaning that the redundant paths for global oil transportation are being further compressed.

At the same time, the United States' own energy buffer capacity is approaching historical lows. According to Deutsche Welle, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to 289.7 million barrels, the lowest since 1982. The report pointed out that both the Biden and Trump administrations have drawn on reserves during crises to buffer consumer prices. The Strategic Reserve was originally established as a last line of defense against external shocks, but has now become a routine tool for responding to domestic political pressure, and the logic of its use itself exposes the tension in Washington between military intervention in the Middle East and domestic energy security.

Deutsche Welle recalled that Brent crude once surged to $126 per barrel in April this year. Although the current price is lower than that peak, market observers warn that spare capacity has been greatly depleted, and the world is almost unable to absorb another round of supply disruptions. This means that every military action in the Strait of Hormuz has spillover effects that fall more directly on the bills of energy-importing developing countries and ordinary consumers—countries and people who have no say in the direction of the conflict.