72,000 Poured Into Ceuta — Warning Came a Day Earlier: Declassified Files Grill Madrid's Responsibility and Morocco's Role

Declassified files from Spain's National Intelligence Center (CNI) show that one day before more than 72,000 people poured in from Morocco into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, the agency had issued an explicit alert to Madrid's delegation in Ceuta via instant messaging and simultaneously notified Moroccan intelligence services. According to Al Jazeera, the 40 documents were released on Wednesday, against the backdrop of sustained protests in Ceuta over the government's handling of the crisis.

According to Al Jazeera, the WhatsApp alert sent by the CNI on July 29 cited content from two social media groups with a combined following of roughly 180,000, saying they were calling on participants to "breach the fence at 8 p.m. tomorrow night and enter by sea," and added: "This is just so you understand the scale of it." The same day, the CNI also informed Morocco's intelligence agencies DGST and DGED that migrants planned to take advantage of Morocco's Throne Day on July 30 to enter Ceuta by climbing over the border fence or swimming around it.

Nevertheless, Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez on Wednesday denied that the documents meant the authorities had foreseen the actual scale of the crisis. He wrote on the social platform X: "The existence of this operation was known to other agencies and was under surveillance, but it in no way constitutes, nor should be read as, an indication of the scale, nature, or likelihood of what subsequently occurred." Sánchez had also previously said there was no evidence that Morocco was involved in the crisis.

The files also cast Morocco's role into sharp controversy. Al Jazeera reported that a CNI assessment issued at midday on July 30 judged it "highly likely that the Moroccan authorities did not actively encourage this migrant wave," but that they had so far "acted negligently and passively"; at the operational level, "apart from the deployment of a small number of riot forces, no active response by the Moroccan authorities to the unfolding situation was observed." However, a police report leaked in July accused Moroccan police of acting with "complete放任" (complete laissez-faire) during the border assault. As of now, Morocco has not publicly responded to the declassified files.

Opposition parties in parliament seized on the moment to launch sharp accusations against Madrid. Ester Muñoz, parliamentary spokesperson for the right-wing People's Party (PP), told a press conference: "The government knew everything that was happening... they had the information. They bear direct responsibility for the invasion of Ceuta." Sánchez, for his part, insisted that the intelligence services were indeed monitoring the relevant dynamics, but that they could not have predicted the scale of events on that basis.

The release of the documents comes as the humanitarian fallout continues. Al Jazeera, citing Spanish government data, reported that roughly 5,000 migrants and asylum seekers — including 1,200 minors — remained stranded in Ceuta more than a month after the events, with some still without shelter; local officials estimated the actual number could be as high as 10,000. Madrid pledged $357 million in aid.

One of Spain's two enclaves in North Africa, Ceuta shares a multi-kilometer border fence with Morocco that has long stood as one of the most sensitive borderlines between Europe and Africa. The number of people who surged across in under 48 hours amounted to most of Ceuta's usual population, overwhelming the city's reception capacity and social services. Local protests over the government's handling have now lasted nearly two months.