U.S. and Israel Wage War on Iran, Yet Washington Relaxes Russia Sanctions to Lower Fuel Costs

Al Jazeera English reported that from March onward, the U.S. Treasury issued waivers allowing Russian oil already loaded onto ships to be sold; in the same month, the Treasury also granted Russia a sanctions exemption for diesel, valid through April 2027. Trump subsequently suspended newly approved sanctions on Russia and buyers of its oil and gas. These arrangements came against the backdrop of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran: on Feb. 28, the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran, after which Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. Al Jazeera reported that the United States and Iran were still fighting for control of the strait.

In peacetime, roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies are transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Al Jazeera reported that Brent crude prices rose from about $72 a barrel to a high of roughly $120 in March and April and remained above $109 at the time of reporting. Citing Reuters calculations, Al Jazeera said that by April, revenue from Russia’s largest single oil tax had nearly doubled to about $9 billion, as buyers unable to obtain supplies from the Gulf turned to other sources.

Al Jazeera reported that Washington eased restrictions on Russian energy in order to lower domestic fuel costs; fuel costs are among Americans’ leading complaints, and the Nov. 3 midterm elections are approaching. Trump, meanwhile, said he did not want to "foolishly drive Russia back to the negotiating table" and jeopardize the talks on Ukraine. The suspension of new sanctions also drew strong objections from Republicans within the party who supported the original sanctions legislation.

For Russia, the gains are similarly concrete. John Lough of Chatham House said high oil prices and pressure on diesel supplies prompted Trump to relax sanctions and allow Russian diesel into the U.S. market, broadly benefiting Moscow. He added: "The Kremlin is using this opportunity to bring Russia’s and America’s interests in Ukraine into alignment, seeking to stop Ukraine from continuing to attack Russian refineries." Nikita Smagin said that although Russia has gained some benefits from the continuation of the conflict, it does not, on the whole, want the situation to escalate unpredictably.

Russia has also publicly supported Iran but has not openly intervened militarily. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov pledged support for Iran in Tehran, while the Russian Foreign Ministry condemned what it called the U.S. and Israeli "illegal aggression." U.S. media cited intelligence reports saying that Russia and China provided Iran with satellite imagery and weapons components; Trump rejected the reporting, so the information cannot yet be considered confirmed.

Russia is also serving as a channel of communication. Al Jazeera reported that Putin conveyed Iran’s views on ending the war during a phone call with Trump on Oct. 9. The Kremlin previously said Trump and Putin had discussed meeting Xi Jinping during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen in November to discuss the war in Ukraine, but the White House has not confirmed whether Trump will attend. Georgetown University analyst Nader Hashemi does not believe Trump is seeking Putin’s help to resolve the Iran war, but he suspects the Iran war could also become a topic if the potential three-way meeting takes place. This remains speculation.

Gulf Cooperation Council members urged Lavrov to use Moscow’s influence to push Iran to participate in "serious dialogue" and restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran attacked U.S. military assets and energy infrastructure in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. Russia has not openly joined the war, but it has expanded its room for policy maneuver by maintaining diplomatic contact with all sides, increasing Russian energy exports and obtaining sanctions exemptions.

At the time of Al Jazeera’s reporting, the United States and Iran were still fighting for control near the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. midterm elections approaching. Trump threatened to "end this soon," and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi responded: "We have unfinished business, too." The fighting has not ended, but sanctions and energy policies have already shifted course: rising oil prices and buyers turning to other sources have boosted Russian oil-tax revenue, while pressure on diesel supplies has prompted Washington to ease restrictions; as for whether the United States and Russia can reach an arrangement on Ukraine or Iran, no such arrangement has been confirmed in the available public information.