Can Carmaker-Funded University Report Give Germany a 'Scientific' Cover to Block EU 2035 Combustion Engine Ban?

When Bavarian Minister-President Markus Söder took to social media to call for ending the "EU 2035 internal combustion engine phase-out plan," he claimed this position had "scientific" backing. The report he cited came from the Technical University of Munich. According to Deutsche Welle, while the report questioned current emissions regulations, it also revealed an intriguing chain of interests: major automakers pushing for the life-cycle assessment method—BMW, Audi, and Volkswagen—are all major institutional donors to the university.

The report claims battery electric vehicles reduce carbon emissions by only about 41% on average compared to gasoline cars over their entire life cycle, criticizing EU regulation for looking only at tailpipe emissions and ignoring factors such as manufacturing and electricity sources—constituting what it called a "major flaw in climate strategy." This figure differs significantly from studies by multiple independent institutions.

Georg Bieker, a researcher at the International Council on Clean Transportation, said in an interview with Deutsche Welle that the Technical University of Munich analysis "provides no new insights"—life-cycle assessment is already industry consensus. A 2025 study he co-authored shows that battery electric vehicles in the EU market have life-cycle emissions on average 73% lower than gasoline cars, with reductions of up to 78% when only renewable energy is used; similar studies by the EU and the International Energy Agency show reductions of 60% to 66%, while Germany's Federal Ministry for the Environment states that modern battery electric vehicles can achieve reductions of up to 80%.

Gabriel Clarke, a policy official at Eurelectric, stated even more directly in an email: "Whether measured by life-cycle assessment or tailpipe emissions, battery electric vehicles are always the preferred technology for carbon reduction in road transport. The replacement of internal combustion engine vehicles must accelerate, not be delayed."

The environmental costs of batteries do exist. Mining one ton of lithium—enough to produce batteries for approximately 125 electric vehicles—requires about 2 million liters of water, and mining of critical minerals such as cobalt and lithium is directly linked to habitat destruction and water consumption. But research by the International Council on Clean Transportation also shows that while battery electric vehicle production-stage emissions are about 40% higher than those of gasoline cars, these additional emissions can be offset after just 17,000 kilometers of driving. Bieker pointed out that "we see a downward trend in battery production emissions," noting that cheaper, more durable lithium iron phosphate batteries, for example, already have lower production emissions than traditional ternary lithium batteries, and most batteries can ultimately be recycled—while fuel simply disappears once burned.

Grid decarbonization is further amplifying the environmental advantages of electric vehicles. Clarke stated that Europe's grid has already decarbonized by more than 70% and is expected to be nearly fully decarbonized by 2040. "As green steel production and battery recycling capacity increase, the environmental advantages of electric vehicles will continue to expand."

In terms of industrial landscape, European battery production capacity currently ranks second globally, still trailing China. The European Commission has pledged €1.5 billion in interest-free loans to boost the domestic battery industry, acknowledging the need for more aggressive investment in the electrification race.

In Bieker's view, the direction of the market will not change due to political resistance. "The future belongs to electrification, regardless of what European policymakers or German automakers think," he said bluntly. He warned that climate, competitiveness, and economic development all require Europe to accelerate its transition: "We cannot win this race by avoiding it—we need to double down on electrification and cannot slow our pace."