"Science" Funded by Auto Giants: German Academia Provides Arguments for Postponing EU Ban on Combustion Engines

Bavarian State Premier Söder recently took to social media to make a high-profile call to terminate the EU's 2035 plan to phase out combustion engines entirely, slapping a "science" label on the position. According to Deutsche Welle, Söder's basis is a newly published research report from the Technical University of Munich (TUM), which claims that battery electric vehicles on average reduce carbon emissions by only 41% compared with combustion vehicles, and criticizes current EU vehicle emissions regulations for focusing solely on tailpipe CO2 while treating electric vehicles as "climate neutral," ignoring factors such as manufacturing and the electricity mix.

The report, which Söder and German tabloid Bild have promoted as grounds for overturning EU climate policy, carries a distinctly industrial coloration. Deutsche Welle noted that BMW, Audi, and Volkswagen are all institutional donors to the Technical University of Munich, with BMW and Audi both headquartered in Bavaria. Bild went further, attacking EU electric-vehicle policy under the headline "The EU's Car Lie." As the head of the Free State of Bavaria, Söder represents precisely the political interests of this auto-industry heartland.

Differences in research methodology are the key reason the TUM report's conclusions diverge so dramatically from those of most independent studies. Georg Bieker, a researcher at the US-based International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), told Deutsche Welle that TUM's analysis "provides no new insights," noting that the importance of full-lifecycle assessment has long been an industry consensus. He and colleagues published another study in 2025 covering the full lifecycle of passenger vehicles sold in the EU—from vehicle production through fuel consumption and maintenance—with the conclusion that EVs' greenhouse gas emissions are on average 73% lower than those of gasoline cars, and that the reduction can reach 78% if renewable electricity is used throughout. Similar studies by the EU and the International Energy Agency have arrived at a reduction range of 60% to 66%, while Germany's Federal Ministry for the Environment has noted that the emission-reduction potential of modern EVs can reach 80%.

There is no fundamental disagreement between the parties on the fact that EVs carry higher manufacturing-stage emissions. ICCT's research confirms that, owing to battery production, EVs' manufacturing emissions are about 40% higher than those of combustion vehicles. But this additional emission is offset by driving only about 17,000 kilometers—typically the equivalent of one to two years. By contrast, the overwhelming majority of carbon emissions from combustion vehicles come from the tailpipe, with manufacturing accounting for only around 13% of total climate impact.

The electricity mix is another variable magnified by the TUM report. EVs produce no direct emissions when driven, but if the electricity used for charging comes from fossil fuels, indirect CO2 emissions still result. Gabrielle Clarke, a policy official at Eurelectric, the trade association representing the European electricity industry, told Deutsche Welle that the European grid has already been decarbonized by more than 70%, and is expected to achieve near-complete decarbonization by 2040. She noted that, as green steel production and battery recycling capacity improve, EVs' emission-reduction advantage will only widen further.

Clarke was blunt: there is no need to replace the EU's existing tailpipe emissions regulations with more complex full-lifecycle regulations. Citing research conclusions, she said: "Whether by full-lifecycle assessment or by tailpipe emissions accounting, battery electric vehicles are always the preferred technology for carbon reduction in road transport. The replacement of combustion vehicles must be accelerated, not delayed."

The resource cost of batteries themselves cannot be sidestepped. Mining cobalt, lithium, and other critical minerals is linked to ecological damage and water consumption—producing the one ton of lithium required for 125 EVs consumes roughly 2 million liters of water. But batteries can ultimately be recycled on a large scale, unlike fuel which simply disappears after combustion. ICCT research also noted that battery production emissions are on a continuous downward trend, with lithium iron phosphate batteries gradually replacing nickel cobalt manganese batteries as a safer, longer-lasting, and lower-cost new industry choice. Although Europe still trails China and ranks second globally in battery manufacturing, the European Commission has pledged fiscal support to drive the industry forward, recently disbursing €1.5 billion in interest-free loans.

Bieker cautioned that the market will ultimately make its own choice. He told Deutsche Welle: "The future will be electric, regardless of what European policymakers and German automakers think." He cited a German survey showing that 54% of respondents said they were more likely to choose an electric vehicle as their next car, citing reasons including technological progress, rising fuel prices, and environmental concerns. "We cannot win this race by avoiding it," Bieker said. "For the sake of the climate, competitiveness, and economic development, we need to double down on electrification, not slow down."

Behind the methodological dispute between tailpipe and full-lifecycle accounting lies a political contest over the EU's climate roadmap. When the main funders of a report happen to be the auto giants most affected by the policy, and its conclusions are invoked by a country's political leaders as grounds for delaying climate policy, the substance of the matter is no longer merely how carbon emissions should be calculated—it is how industrial capital, cloaked in "science," exerts asymmetric influence on the regulatory agenda.