Trump’s job approval rating falls to 31%, Democrats lead the combined vote by 12 points: Republicans under pressure in the midterms

According to a national combined vote-intention poll by Reuters and Ipsos cited by Al Jazeera on October 20, 2026, 31% of 1,679 U.S. adults said they were satisfied with Trump’s performance in office, down one percentage point from 32% two weeks earlier and the lowest level across his two terms as president. If the midterms were held now, Democrats would have 47% support to the Republicans’ 35%, a 12-point lead; the lead was seven points two weeks earlier.

The same poll showed that about half of female respondents leaned Democratic; 40% of respondents said Democrats were better at managing the economy, compared with 33% who picked Republicans. Taken together, the president’s approval rating at a term low, the widening Democratic advantage in the combined vote and the shift toward Democrats on the economy sent Republicans a clear signal: the White House’s hard-line stance on foreign policy cannot substitute for domestic economic performance and political support.

Al Jazeera identified rising living costs and public dissatisfaction with the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran as important background to the decline in Trump’s support. These factors emerged alongside a weakening Republican electoral position, but the current polling figures cannot prove that they were the sole or direct cause of the decline in support, nor can they prove that the war pushed up prices. Military action abroad did not automatically translate into domestic support, even as war and household economic pressures moved to the center of the midterm election agenda.

This also makes the midterms a test of whether Republicans can continue to control Congress. As a party to the conflict, the United States controls national decision-making on military operations against Iran, but war-related appropriations and legislation remain subject to congressional constraints. If Democrats win majorities in both chambers, Trump’s war policy and domestic agenda will face more systematic budget and legislative resistance.

The seat structure makes the risks more concrete. Republicans hold a 218-214 majority in the House and a 53-47 lead in the Senate. The November 3 midterm elections will put all 435 House seats and 33 of the 100 Senate seats up for election. Citing data from the "American Presidency Project" at the University of California, Santa Barbara, Al Jazeera said that in the 20 midterm elections since 1946, the party holding the presidency lost House seats 18 times. Historical patterns do not guarantee the outcome, but with presidential approval at only 31%, Republicans are unlikely to receive the cushion that presidents with high approval ratings often provide.

This national combined vote-intention poll does not provide a state-by-state breakdown, and actual turnout and competitive district-level races could also change the outcome. Whether Republicans can rebuild trust by bridging the divide between war policy and household budgets will determine whether they can hold their narrow House advantage, with its four-seat margin, and their Senate majority through a seat-by-seat battle over 33 seats.