US-Iran Mutual Attacks on Merchant Ships Hit Six-Month War High; Hormuz Strait Traffic Plummets to One-Quarter of Pre-War Level

According to France 24 citing Reuters, Iran claimed on Wednesday to have attacked 10 vessels near the Hormuz Strait in retaliation for the US military's earlier sinking of 5 of its oil tankers. This is the largest publicly disclosed wave of mutual attacks on merchant ships between the US and Iran since the six-month war broke out.

With the conflict escalating sharply, global energy markets are under pressure. Benchmark Brent crude futures broke through the $100-per-barrel mark for the first time since July of this year. Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at energy consultancy Rystad, said daily transit through the Hormuz Strait has fallen back to about 2 million barrels, compared with 8 to 9 million barrels in the week before fighting resumed on August 30.

US Central Command said its strikes on Iranian oil tankers were in response to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps twice targeting US military vessels with ballistic missiles over the past two days, and released video of the destroyed vessels burning and sinking. France 24 reported that the US side said no US military personnel were injured in the attacks.

Even more noteworthy is the public shift in US policy. The US State Department announced a new policy—striking Iranian oil tankers as a response to any fire directed at US warships. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters during a visit to Colombia: "Iran continues to try to hit US naval ships, and for every time they do that or try to do that, they're going to lose tankers." Rubio said the US side has struck 10 Iranian oil tankers in the past week.

The cost of war is being passed on to ordinary people. The oil tanker Hercules Star was attacked at anchorage off Dubai, killing at least one crew member, with other crew members unaccounted for. The charterer, Peninsula, confirmed the news, and maritime security sources said the vessel may have been struck by a drone, but independent verification has not been completed. In Iraqi waters, the oil tanker New Andros, carrying 2 million barrels of fuel oil, caught fire after being struck by a drone; all 22 crew members were reported uninjured.

France 24, citing Reuters data, noted that in step with rising crude prices, the more politically sensitive retail prices for refined products have seen even sharper swings—the US average retail diesel price broke through $5.94 per gallon on Wednesday, hitting yet another record high. This price embeds a faraway strait conflict in an almost unavoidable way into the daily expenses of American households.

The war is continuing to spill into a wider area. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that if the enemy strikes two or three more targets, it will carry out strikes against 20 targets, and said it would soon publish an expanded maritime exclusion zone map, with new zones extending to near Iran's Chabahar Port close to the Pakistani border. Iranian state media reported that Iran has also threatened oil tankers at ports in Kuwait and Bahrain. A liquefied natural gas carrier was reported damaged at the UAE's Khor Fakkan Port.

On the land front, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps said it fired ballistic missiles at a US military base near Azraq in eastern Jordan. Jordan said its air defense systems intercepted 18 of 20 missiles, with the other 2 landing in unpopulated areas. France 24, citing a US official, said Iran's strike on Jordan was "ineffective" and all US military personnel had been accounted for, but this account currently relies solely on the US side. UN Secretary-General Guterres called on all parties to "exercise maximum restraint" to avoid further intensification of tensions in and around the Hormuz Strait.

On another front, Yemen's Houthi forces attacked oil facilities in four Saudi Arabian cities on Tuesday, triggering satellite-visible fires, with Saudi authorities reporting 73 injured. The following day, Saudi authorities issued alerts in two previously attacked cities but subsequently announced the threat had been lifted, reflecting a highly unstable situation. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched multi-pronged offensives against Houthi-controlled areas in southern Yemen.

The UK Maritime Security Agency UKMTO reported receiving reports from multiple merchant ships of attacks with "crippling fire" in the northern Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman on both sides of the Strait. France 24, citing Reuters, noted that currently the numbers of vessels attacked and the targets disclosed by various parties primarily come from official statements, with limited channels for independent verification.

The conflict has spread across multiple fronts: from tankers in the Strait to military bases in Jordan, from Iraqi waters to oil facilities inside Saudi Arabia. The Strait's strategic significance as a transit route for roughly one-fifth of global crude oil transport means that any escalation decision in this confrontation will ultimately land on the bills of ordinary consumers worldwide in the form of higher fuel prices, longer detour distances, and supply chain disruptions.